CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2010-2568

Windows Shell in Microsoft Windows XP SP3, Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP1 and SP2, Server 2008 SP2 and R2, and Windows 7 allows local users or remote attackers to execute arbitrary…

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Sep 15, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 2.0 9.3. EPSS estimates 91.3% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

87.4–88.4Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Windows Shell in Microsoft Windows XP SP3, Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP1 and SP2, Server 2008 SP2 and R2, and Windows 7 allows local users or remote attackers to execute arbitrary code via a crafted (1) .LNK or (2) .PIF shortcut file, which is not properly handled during icon display in Windows Explorer, as demonstrated in the wild in July 2010, and originally reported for malware that leverages CVE-2010-2772 in Siemens WinCC SCADA systems.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Jul 22, 2010
Updated
Oct 22, 2025
Evidence coverage
98%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Windows Shell in Microsoft Windows XP SP3, Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP1 and SP2, Server 2008 SP2 and R2, and Windows 7 allows local users or remote attackers to execute arbitrary code via a crafted (1) .LNK or (2) .PIF shortcut file, which is not properly handled during icon display in Windows Explorer, as demonstrated in the wild in July 2010, and originally reported for malware that leverages CVE-2010-2772 in Siemens WinCC SCADA systems.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Windows Shell in Microsoft Windows XP SP3, Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP1 and SP2, Server 2008 SP2 and R2, and Windows 7 allows local users or remote attackers to execute arbitrary code via a crafted (1) .LNK or (2) .PIF shortcut file, which is not properly handled during icon display in Windows Explorer, as demonstrated in the wild in July 2010, and originally reported for malware that leverages CVE-2010-2772 in Siemens WinCC SCADA systems.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Windows Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 91.32% probability · 99.8th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.913240000000; percentile 0.998020000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Sep 15, 2022 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood91.32%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 99.8th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.3

NVD · CVSS 2.0 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Windows Shell in Microsoft Windows XP SP3, Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP1 and SP2, Server 2008 SP2 and R2, and Windows 7 allows local users or remote attackers to execute arbitrary code via a crafted (1) .LNK or (2) .PIF shortcut file, which is not properly handled during icon display in Windows Explorer, as demonstrated in the wild in July 2010, and originally reported for malware that leverages CVE-2010-2772 in Siemens WinCC SCADA systems.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Windows Shell in Microsoft Windows XP SP3, Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP1 and SP2, Server 2008 SP2 and R2, and Windows 7 allows local users or remote attackers to execute arbitrary code via a crafted (1) .LNK or (2) .PIF shortcut file, which is not properly handled during icon display in Windows Explorer, as demonstrated in the wild in July 2010, and originally reported for malware that leverages CVE-2010-2772 in Siemens WinCC SCADA systems.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Windows Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Windows Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

91.32% probability · 99.8th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.913240000000; percentile 0.998020000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
10Underlying assertions
5Canonical products
10Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

6 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope
Affected: n/a
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_7Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-f20a05098a41a238f96b56b817d0482887bb39ad40620198bbe05da10ee02ffcLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_7:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    e33796db-4523-4f04-b564-adf030553d51
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2003Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-21c8a455c6651c09ac3fd0874c5219dd6081913f4835e8de22662b3821fec60bLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2003:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    1d929aa2-ee0b-4aa1-805d-69bcca11b77f
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2008Vulnerable target · 4 assertions
Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:r2:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    b7674920-ae12-4a25-be57-34aedda74d76
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    5f422a8c-2c4e-42c8-b420-e0728037e15c
  3. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:r2:*:*:*:*:*:itanium:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    b20dd263-5a62-4cb1-bd47-d1f9a6c67e08
  4. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:-:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c2ee0ad3-2adc-480e-b03e-06962ec4f095
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_vistaVulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-c6332934cac78bf2604a03402cb66568f867ce86c773d4333d1205e477bf93a9Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_vista:-:sp1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    3a04e39a-623e-45ca-a5fc-25daa0f275a3
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_vista:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    bf1ad1a1-ee20-4bce-9ee6-84b27139811c
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_xpVulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-64e458557132a0a0a8bbaccf808d742614fb319511c19c0d45dd39b15a52fcc7Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_xp:-:sp2:*:*:professional:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c6109348-bc79-4ed3-8d41-ea546a540c79
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_xp:-:sp3:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c9392d35-7bf5-48e9-879b-bbde9a9e9ab9

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

5 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87a

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
4
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
0bf22620-2020-43dc-b002-df329797d52d61570f15-2163-45b7-ac40-fb0d5190f4cdb6db5bed-9aea-4995-803b-fc61079d7018c57f0e53-a1ae-4af0-8b99-d19f06f0a04b
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-21c8a455c6651c09ac3fd0874c5219dd6081913f4835e8de22662b3821fec60b

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
de63a4ba-b526-48bf-945a-83365c0be65f
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-64e458557132a0a0a8bbaccf808d742614fb319511c19c0d45dd39b15a52fcc7

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
521bf7b5-7cae-499f-b669-6853ba757051fed6146d-b63b-47d1-8030-baf41aaf6830
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-c6332934cac78bf2604a03402cb66568f867ce86c773d4333d1205e477bf93a9

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
652527db-4ea0-4c2f-9f85-917865ca2c7a7576d795-f75b-4976-b063-f921e5a78d57
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-f20a05098a41a238f96b56b817d0482887bb39ad40620198bbe05da10ee02ffc

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
f6cada6b-3304-4f56-81fd-c756e6f62428
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
919ff1e3-364d-4673-ae88-cd7d2d4844ac

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.3
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:M/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C
7.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.