Evidence dossier

CVE-2015-1701

Win32k.sys in the kernel-mode drivers in Microsoft Windows Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP2, and Server 2008 SP2 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, as…

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Mar 3, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 56.2% exploit likelihood as of Aug 26, 2026.

79.1–80.2Priority evidence range

Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Win32k.sys in the kernel-mode drivers in Microsoft Windows Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP2, and Server 2008 SP2 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, as exploited in the wild in April 2015, aka "Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability."

State: PUBLISHED
Published: Apr 21, 2015
Updated: Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage: 97%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026
CISA-ADP
Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Original evidence ↗
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026
CVE Program
Record text: CVE Program Container
Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Original evidence ↗
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026
microsoft
Record text: Win32k.sys in the kernel-mode drivers in Microsoft Windows Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP2, and Server 2008 SP2 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, as exploited in the wild in April 2015, aka "Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability."
Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Win32k.sys in the kernel-mode drivers in Microsoft Windows Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP2, and Server 2008 SP2 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, as exploited in the wild in April 2015, aka "Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability."
Original evidence ↗
Source dateJul 16, 2026First observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026
CISA KEV
Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Original evidence ↗
Source dateAug 26, 2026First observed by CASCAAug 26, 2026
FIRST EPSS
EPSS score: 56.2% probability · 98.97th percentile
Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.562000000000; percentile 0.989730000000
Original evidence ↗

ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Mar 3, 2022 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood56.20%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 26, 2026 · 99th percentile · first observed Aug 26, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1

Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision: evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff: Aug 27, 2026
Resolution: None

Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision: evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff: Aug 27, 2026
Resolution: None

Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision: casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff: Aug 27, 2026
Resolution: None

Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision: casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff: Aug 27, 2026
Resolution: Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment

Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion

Field: container
Value: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026Original evidence ↗

CVE ProgramDerivative copy

Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion

Field: container
Value: CVE Program Container

Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026Original evidence ↗

microsoftOriginal assertion

Record text

Inspect raw assertion

Field: container
Value: Win32k.sys in the kernel-mode drivers in Microsoft Windows Server 2003 SP2, Vista SP2, and Server 2008 SP2 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, as exploited in the wild in April 2015, aka "Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability."

Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026Original evidence ↗

CISA KEVOriginal assertion

Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion

Field: observed_exploitation
Value: Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Source dateJul 16, 2026First observed by CASCAJul 19, 2026Original evidence ↗

FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion

EPSS score

56.2% probability · 98.97th percentile

Inspect raw assertion

Field: model_probability
Value: Probability 0.562000000000; percentile 0.989730000000

Source dateAug 26, 2026First observed by CASCAAug 26, 2026Original evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →

5Underlying assertions

4Canonical products

5Target assertions

0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries

Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

Search scopeRoleOfficial link state

5 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope

Affected: n/a

Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion

[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]

NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_2003_serverVulnerable target · 2 assertions

Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-f3413ed5ab0f01a0a5141c3dbfdb0136c0a4860172d1e218fc470e8e3c58bd07Linked exact

Scope supported

Inspect raw assertions

cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_2003_server:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
Official link
Linked exact
Role
Vulnerable target
Configuration
0 · node/0 · match 0
Logic
OR
Version bounds
No explicit bounds
Match ID
3c0c7d2b-0aa5-4e82-b58b-2668a0eac2e9
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_2003_server:r2:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
Official link
Linked exact
Role
Vulnerable target
Configuration
0 · node/0 · match 1
Logic
OR
Version bounds
No explicit bounds
Match ID
2ca6755c-a59e-4844-8716-7ec535296838

NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_7Vulnerable target · 1 assertions

Version not applicableCanonical identity product-f20a05098a41a238f96b56b817d0482887bb39ad40620198bbe05da10ee02ffcLinked exact

Scope supported

Inspect raw assertion

cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_7:-:sp1:*:*:*:*:*:*
Official link
Linked exact
Role
Vulnerable target
Configuration
0 · node/0 · match 2
Logic
OR
Version bounds
No explicit bounds
Match ID
c2b1c231-de19-4b8f-a4aa-5b3a65276e46

NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2008Vulnerable target · 1 assertions

Version not applicableCanonical identity product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87aLinked exact

Scope supported

Inspect raw assertion

cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
Official link
Linked exact
Role
Vulnerable target
Configuration
0 · node/0 · match 3
Logic
OR
Version bounds
No explicit bounds
Match ID
5f422a8c-2c4e-42c8-b420-e0728037e15c

NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_vistaVulnerable target · 1 assertions

Version not applicableCanonical identity product-c6332934cac78bf2604a03402cb66568f867ce86c773d4333d1205e477bf93a9Linked exact

Scope supported

Inspect raw assertion

cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_vista:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
Official link
Linked exact
Role
Vulnerable target
Configuration
0 · node/0 · match 4
Logic
OR
Version bounds
No explicit bounds
Match ID
bf1ad1a1-ee20-4bce-9ee6-84b27139811c

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

4 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87a

Source class: Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions: 1
Mapping revision: cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff: Aug 27, 2026

Retained assertion IDs

2b4c93aa-c982-4c9a-9823-98ede114679e

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-c6332934cac78bf2604a03402cb66568f867ce86c773d4333d1205e477bf93a9

Source class: Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions: 1
Mapping revision: cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff: Aug 27, 2026

Retained assertion IDs

b0b1bb99-0afc-4594-bfcf-62119f830036

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-f20a05098a41a238f96b56b817d0482887bb39ad40620198bbe05da10ee02ffc

Source class: Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions: 1
Mapping revision: cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff: Aug 27, 2026

Retained assertion IDs

23380285-be1f-4079-b408-85e1cd1dd5d6

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-f3413ed5ab0f01a0a5141c3dbfdb0136c0a4860172d1e218fc470e8e3c58bd07

Source class: Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions: 2
Mapping revision: cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff: Aug 27, 2026

Retained assertion IDs

91a4101c-c1ad-4111-99d4-83b16b93011fe7923fdd-deba-4245-afd8-ed75068c8bbf

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class: Direct cve affected
Assertions: 1
Mapping revision: cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff: Aug 27, 2026

Retained assertion IDs

fa95bc6f-957e-433b-93da-aaf3674f8524

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.8

NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

7.2

NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:L/AC:L/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C

7.8

CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

7.8

CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Validation: Valid match
Recomputed: 7.8
Decision reason: Evidence supported
Policy: casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.