CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2015-2546

The kernel-mode driver in Microsoft Windows Vista SP2, Windows Server 2008 SP2 and R2 SP1, Windows 7 SP1, Windows 8, Windows 8.1, Windows Server 2012 Gold and R2, Windows RT…

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Mar 15, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 2.0 6.9. EPSS estimates 10.9% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

70.0–70.9Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

The kernel-mode driver in Microsoft Windows Vista SP2, Windows Server 2008 SP2 and R2 SP1, Windows 7 SP1, Windows 8, Windows 8.1, Windows Server 2012 Gold and R2, Windows RT Gold and 8.1, and Windows 10 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, aka "Win32k Memory Corruption Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability," a different vulnerability than CVE-2015-2511, CVE-2015-2517, and CVE-2015-2518.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Sep 9, 2015
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
98%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: The kernel-mode driver in Microsoft Windows Vista SP2, Windows Server 2008 SP2 and R2 SP1, Windows 7 SP1, Windows 8, Windows 8.1, Windows Server 2012 Gold and R2, Windows RT Gold and 8.1, and Windows 10 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, aka "Win32k Memory Corruption Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability," a different vulnerability than CVE-2015-2511, CVE-2015-2517, and CVE-2015-2518.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    The kernel-mode driver in Microsoft Windows Vista SP2, Windows Server 2008 SP2 and R2 SP1, Windows 7 SP1, Windows 8, Windows 8.1, Windows Server 2012 Gold and R2, Windows RT Gold and 8.1, and Windows 10 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, aka "Win32k Memory Corruption Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability," a different vulnerability than CVE-2015-2511, CVE-2015-2517, and CVE-2015-2518.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Win32k Memory Corruption Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Win32k Memory Corruption Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 10.93% probability · 95.55th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.109290000000; percentile 0.955460000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Mar 15, 2022 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood10.93%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 95.5th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 6.9

NVD · CVSS 2.0 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

The kernel-mode driver in Microsoft Windows Vista SP2, Windows Server 2008 SP2 and R2 SP1, Windows 7 SP1, Windows 8, Windows 8.1, Windows Server 2012 Gold and R2, Windows RT Gold and 8.1, and Windows 10 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, aka "Win32k Memory Corruption Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability," a different vulnerability than CVE-2015-2511, CVE-2015-2517, and CVE-2015-2518.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
The kernel-mode driver in Microsoft Windows Vista SP2, Windows Server 2008 SP2 and R2 SP1, Windows 7 SP1, Windows 8, Windows 8.1, Windows Server 2012 Gold and R2, Windows RT Gold and 8.1, and Windows 10 allows local users to gain privileges via a crafted application, aka "Win32k Memory Corruption Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability," a different vulnerability than CVE-2015-2511, CVE-2015-2517, and CVE-2015-2518.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Win32k Memory Corruption Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Win32k Memory Corruption Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

10.93% probability · 95.55th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.109290000000; percentile 0.955460000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
12Underlying assertions
9Canonical products
12Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

10 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope
Affected: n/a
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1507Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-9851bd571b8ab08bca589cd73710badfef557d036f0fb7707f694f1c9f597cb4Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1507:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    542daeec-73cc-46c6-a630-bf474a3446ac
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_7Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-f20a05098a41a238f96b56b817d0482887bb39ad40620198bbe05da10ee02ffcLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_7:-:sp1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c2b1c231-de19-4b8f-a4aa-5b3a65276e46
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_8Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-5a559e3d4b779565d6fa99223972e75a4cba4d476b27b830a78ab8eb44d5bef2Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_8:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    0d229e41-a971-4284-9657-16d78414b93f
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_8.1Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-7e46de82012029583622f69d79b86bc210b5bd25b8cb3bb4468936702b23c4b0Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_8.1:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    e93068db-549b-45ab-8e5c-00eb5d8b5cf8
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_rtVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-f2e843a0733f87d1fbdb9ac1bcb919b5de195839b7bcb2713e04543f626be126Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_rt:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    abc7a32c-4a4a-4533-b42e-350e728adfeb
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_rt_8.1Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-076c7e47c78d9425d54dea0b063ed7cd79e5f9f0bfdb3c9153b8aec4e71a7ad9Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_rt_8.1:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c6ce5198-c498-4672-af4c-77ab4be06c5c
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2008Vulnerable target · 3 assertions
Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:r2:sp1:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    af07a81d-12e5-4b1d-bff9-c8d08c32ff4f
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:r2:sp1:*:*:*:*:itanium:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    b320a104-9037-487e-bc9a-62b4a6b49fd0
  3. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    5f422a8c-2c4e-42c8-b420-e0728037e15c
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2012Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-5a80416e92fed0cddbb3d4f3840218b448dee11159824ad25a0353da566963feLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2012:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a7df96f8-ba6a-4780-9ca3-f719b3f81074
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2012:r2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 10
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    db18c4ce-5917-401e-acf7-2747084fd36e
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_vistaVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-c6332934cac78bf2604a03402cb66568f867ce86c773d4333d1205e477bf93a9Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_vista:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 11
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    bf1ad1a1-ee20-4bce-9ee6-84b27139811c

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

9 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-076c7e47c78d9425d54dea0b063ed7cd79e5f9f0bfdb3c9153b8aec4e71a7ad9

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
7c6fba7b-f354-421e-9fd7-25ae3cc96772
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87a

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
3
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
16d08aa2-7af6-4bd0-81e0-0ae30b8d92daad60e7f4-41ef-47cc-aae5-a0f53a2247a5d47106e7-4e73-446b-93fe-6d5966b6f0ed
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-5a559e3d4b779565d6fa99223972e75a4cba4d476b27b830a78ab8eb44d5bef2

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
14772ba0-b190-4c2c-a3fc-e7f5429d2c92
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-5a80416e92fed0cddbb3d4f3840218b448dee11159824ad25a0353da566963fe

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
9c3bd4de-cd58-47e4-8924-4e6aa4ff5268e81c9c02-95d2-4852-bfe4-89669334c7aa
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-7e46de82012029583622f69d79b86bc210b5bd25b8cb3bb4468936702b23c4b0

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
839d86a1-d6fe-4486-a35f-075da1b98fe9
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-9851bd571b8ab08bca589cd73710badfef557d036f0fb7707f694f1c9f597cb4

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
4d5b71cb-996b-4552-94a8-9acc846f0e66
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-c6332934cac78bf2604a03402cb66568f867ce86c773d4333d1205e477bf93a9

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
267b04bd-180b-43e0-ba69-21d24fdf184e
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-f20a05098a41a238f96b56b817d0482887bb39ad40620198bbe05da10ee02ffc

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
fa02b873-afe1-43e6-a976-a35ed288503e
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-f2e843a0733f87d1fbdb9ac1bcb919b5de195839b7bcb2713e04543f626be126

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
0611e847-fc49-49e1-9275-fe6c8146023a
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
253f8120-2f07-4a63-9c4c-b550d4070456

Assessments

CVSS by origin

6.9
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:L/AC:M/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C
8.2
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.2
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.2Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.2
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.