CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2016-4437

Apache Shiro before 1.2.5, when a cipher key has not been configured for the "remember me" feature, allows remote attackers to execute arbitrary code or bypass intended access…

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Nov 3, 2021). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 93.0% exploit likelihood as of Aug 8, 2026.

89.1–90.0Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Apache Shiro before 1.2.5, when a cipher key has not been configured for the "remember me" feature, allows remote attackers to execute arbitrary code or bypass intended access restrictions via an unspecified request parameter.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Jun 7, 2016
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
97%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    redhat

    Record text: Apache Shiro before 1.2.5, when a cipher key has not been configured for the "remember me" feature, allows remote attackers to execute arbitrary code or bypass intended access restrictions via an unspecified request parameter.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Apache Shiro before 1.2.5, when a cipher key has not been configured for the "remember me" feature, allows remote attackers to execute arbitrary code or bypass intended access restrictions via an unspecified request parameter.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Apache Shiro Code Execution Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Apache Shiro Code Execution Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 93.04% probability · 99.82th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.930390000000; percentile 0.998220000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Nov 3, 2021 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood93.04%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 8, 2026 · 99.8th percentile · first observed Aug 8, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
redhatOriginal assertion
Record text

Apache Shiro before 1.2.5, when a cipher key has not been configured for the "remember me" feature, allows remote attackers to execute arbitrary code or bypass intended access restrictions via an unspecified request parameter.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Apache Shiro before 1.2.5, when a cipher key has not been configured for the "remember me" feature, allows remote attackers to execute arbitrary code or bypass intended access restrictions via an unspecified request parameter.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Apache Shiro Code Execution Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Apache Shiro Code Execution Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

93.04% probability · 99.82th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.930390000000; percentile 0.998220000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
4Underlying assertions
4Canonical products
4Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 2 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

5 scope groups

redhat · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope
Affected: n/a
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONapacheauroraVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 0.10.0, < 0.18.1)Canonical identity product-c0167e9921f0228cee779a0850b88f6dff0818f385421c8db527af2c510384d4Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:apache:aurora:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 0.10.0; through excluding 0.18.1
    Match ID
    5e4e49b7-6247-4353-a80d-ade138dd0967
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONapacheshiroVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 1.2.5)Canonical identity product-ae8198d83ab7ceb1932292a7c334232a4cb82b11f7a0c99d9af9daddfa671548Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:apache:shiro:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 1.2.5
    Match ID
    2bf5bf73-85b5-4422-b100-ee22b38f574a
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONredhatfuseVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version 1.0Canonical identity product-15f4f1a5bcca45ff8afd621a4b792cc7852435ed472d651d3a9035155147848aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:redhat:fuse:1.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    1 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    077732db-f5f3-4e9c-9ac0-8142ab85b32f
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONredhatjboss_middleware_text-only_advisoriesVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version 1.0Canonical identity product-7f90294a2da810e133648ded20b2c6342502f5e3e3dd657a90cae7abdd295f6bLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:redhat:jboss_middleware_text-only_advisories:1.0:*:*:*:*:middleware:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    1 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a0fed4ee-0ae2-4bd8-8dac-143382e4db7c

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

4 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-c759fafc60d6abc1277ecbf1ee6294d1f25ae0a4c7d5d0d9355c414b2db182cc · product-15f4f1a5bcca45ff8afd621a4b792cc7852435ed472d651d3a9035155147848a

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
67c77260-b6cd-4f3b-8b73-ab58b76d7742
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-c759fafc60d6abc1277ecbf1ee6294d1f25ae0a4c7d5d0d9355c414b2db182cc · product-7f90294a2da810e133648ded20b2c6342502f5e3e3dd657a90cae7abdd295f6b

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
7a5880fa-bcaa-4c6a-826c-c9321b61ed27
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-8771dac0ae5eeec984ca23e4bbe5a243fb7896ad7c1c4afc6acd3abe53fdd152 · product-ae8198d83ab7ceb1932292a7c334232a4cb82b11f7a0c99d9af9daddfa671548

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
43f4cd94-b375-437e-84ce-9b8236c4aed8
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-8771dac0ae5eeec984ca23e4bbe5a243fb7896ad7c1c4afc6acd3abe53fdd152 · product-c0167e9921f0228cee779a0850b88f6dff0818f385421c8db527af2c510384d4

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
15802e94-c3a0-4ea3-a48f-0769e79a2b40
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
1bad5031-d9ab-41bc-8ad5-16a0dfeceff6

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
6.8
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:M/Au:N/C:P/I:P/A:P
9.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.