CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2018-8414

A remote code execution vulnerability exists when the Windows Shell does not properly validate file paths, aka "Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability." This affects…

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Mar 25, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 8.8. EPSS estimates 74.0% exploit likelihood as of Aug 26, 2026.

84.2–86.0Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

A remote code execution vulnerability exists when the Windows Shell does not properly validate file paths, aka "Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability." This affects Windows 10 Servers, Windows 10.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Aug 15, 2018
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
97%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: A remote code execution vulnerability exists when the Windows Shell does not properly validate file paths, aka "Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability." This affects Windows 10 Servers, Windows 10.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    A remote code execution vulnerability exists when the Windows Shell does not properly validate file paths, aka "Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability." This affects Windows 10 Servers, Windows 10.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 73.97% probability · 99.44th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.739680000000; percentile 0.994400000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Mar 25, 2022 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood73.97%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 26, 2026 · 99.4th percentile · first observed Aug 26, 2026

SeverityCVSS 8.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

A remote code execution vulnerability exists when the Windows Shell does not properly validate file paths, aka "Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability." This affects Windows 10 Servers, Windows 10.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
A remote code execution vulnerability exists when the Windows Shell does not properly validate file paths, aka "Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability." This affects Windows 10 Servers, Windows 10.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Windows Shell Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

73.97% probability · 99.44th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.739680000000; percentile 0.994400000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
8Underlying assertions
5Canonical products
8Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

7 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10Direct source scope
Affected: Version 1703 for 32-bit SystemsAffected: Version 1703 for x64-based SystemsAffected: Version 1709 for 32-bit SystemsAffected: Version 1709 for x64-based SystemsAffected: Version 1803 for 32-bit SystemsAffected: Version 1803 for x64-based Systems
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "Version 1703 for 32-bit Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "Version 1703 for x64-based Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "Version 1709 for 32-bit Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "Version 1709 for x64-based Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "Version 1803 for 32-bit Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "Version 1803 for x64-based Systems"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 ServersDirect source scope
Affected: version 1709 (Server Core Installation)Affected: version 1803 (Server Core Installation)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "version 1709 (Server Core Installation)"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "version 1803 (Server Core Installation)"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1703Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-2f3550a8fd2528ab6e756c5ea638f5f3dc368adee47ca6f01d64918c0b9eb2a5Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1703:-:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    8733bf37-7bf2-409d-9452-da8a92da1124
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1703:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    b98db3ff-cc3b-4e9f-a9cc-ec4c89af3b31
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1709Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-d059dbfcd39652adfca6d48669484008cb5d4a8b33116c81ee002cd9101904afLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1709:-:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    d76003fb-ee99-4d8e-b6a0-b13c2041e5a0
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1709:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    469f95d3-abbb-4f1a-a000-be0f6bd60ff6
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1803Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-5e821ea3746af154a469c180e78b9f4d663edf21461517987eed76740c7910c1Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1803:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    d82f8af7-ed01-4649-849e-f248f0e02384
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1803:-:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c1cfb53b-b17b-47bd-bac1-c6c5d168ffb6
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_1709Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-ff9203e1d48a9425faa287000b301451cdbb2a9defda0e208f1ce06fd168da7dLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_1709:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    9efb4440-2b6b-486f-94d4-7d9c80301e51
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_1803Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-a74a0925fd770075058392e2bb7a5408e96a296354955527de213995d5070448Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_1803:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    fd3218d1-be39-4ceb-a88f-e715b722862b

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

5 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-2f3550a8fd2528ab6e756c5ea638f5f3dc368adee47ca6f01d64918c0b9eb2a5

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
13749824-2265-45af-ab17-6902fc32e52e7e77587c-a5b2-48b7-ae29-921df7819d9a
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-5e821ea3746af154a469c180e78b9f4d663edf21461517987eed76740c7910c1

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
484f165e-682c-4d82-a203-5815c04fdaffe22c033a-bc78-4da9-a595-eafe5fe70cc7
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-a74a0925fd770075058392e2bb7a5408e96a296354955527de213995d5070448

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
8476ebb0-8ff7-4bba-96f1-4beb3b036c04
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-d059dbfcd39652adfca6d48669484008cb5d4a8b33116c81ee002cd9101904af

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
20c36687-ffcc-4ea6-a350-bd46de1d9f28c71291a9-6a6a-44b7-bc3e-f5d8b4d5683b
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-ff9203e1d48a9425faa287000b301451cdbb2a9defda0e208f1ce06fd168da7d

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
d87f4619-e957-4ea2-8621-8ef659145229
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
929c2cae-71f2-4f51-b544-efe9996c2915cfc6b348-3464-4673-bdfd-21d6d2dbd201

Assessments

CVSS by origin

8.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.3
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:M/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C
8.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.