CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2020-0638

An elevation of privilege vulnerability exists in the way the Update Notification Manager handles files.To exploit this vulnerability, an attacker would first have to gain…

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since May 23, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 2.4% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

62.6–74.8Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

An elevation of privilege vulnerability exists in the way the Update Notification Manager handles files.To exploit this vulnerability, an attacker would first have to gain execution on the victim system, aka 'Update Notification Manager Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability'.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Jan 14, 2020
Updated
Aug 12, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: An elevation of privilege vulnerability exists in the way the Update Notification Manager handles files.To exploit this vulnerability, an attacker would first have to gain execution on the victim system, aka 'Update Notification Manager Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability'.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    An elevation of privilege vulnerability exists in the way the Update Notification Manager handles files.To exploit this vulnerability, an attacker would first have to gain execution on the victim system, aka 'Update Notification Manager Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability'.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Update Notification Manager Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Update Notification Manager Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 2.37% probability · 83.7th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.023700000000; percentile 0.836960000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date May 23, 2022 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood2.37%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 83.7th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Aug 12, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

An elevation of privilege vulnerability exists in the way the Update Notification Manager handles files.To exploit this vulnerability, an attacker would first have to gain execution on the victim system, aka 'Update Notification Manager Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability'.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
An elevation of privilege vulnerability exists in the way the Update Notification Manager handles files.To exploit this vulnerability, an attacker would first have to gain execution on the victim system, aka 'Update Notification Manager Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability'.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Update Notification Manager Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Update Notification Manager Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

2.37% probability · 83.7th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.023700000000; percentile 0.836960000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
17Underlying assertions
9Canonical products
17Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

19 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindowsDirect source scope
Affected: 10 Version 1709 for 32-bit SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1803 for 32-bit SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1809 for ARM64-based SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1803 for x64-based SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1709 for ARM64-based SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1709 for x64-based SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1803 for ARM64-based SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1809 for 32-bit SystemsAffected: 10 Version 1809 for x64-based Systems
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1709 for 32-bit Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1803 for 32-bit Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1809 for ARM64-based Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1803 for x64-based Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1709 for ARM64-based Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1709 for x64-based Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1803 for ARM64-based Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1809 for 32-bit Systems"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "10 Version 1809 for x64-based Systems"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1903 for 32-bit SystemsDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1903 for ARM64-based SystemsDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1903 for x64-based SystemsDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1909 for 32-bit SystemsDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1909 for ARM64-based SystemsDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1909 for x64-based SystemsDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows ServerDirect source scope
Affected: 2019Affected: 2019 (Core installation)Affected: version 1803 (Core Installation)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "2019"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "2019 (Core installation)"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "version 1803 (Core Installation)"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server, version 1903 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server, version 1909 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: unspecified
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1709Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-d059dbfcd39652adfca6d48669484008cb5d4a8b33116c81ee002cd9101904afLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1709:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    469f95d3-abbb-4f1a-a000-be0f6bd60ff6
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1709:-:*:*:*:*:*:arm64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    555c22c7-356d-4da7-8ced-da7423bbc6cf
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1803Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-5e821ea3746af154a469c180e78b9f4d663edf21461517987eed76740c7910c1Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1803:-:*:*:*:*:*:arm64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    40151476-c0fd-4336-8194-039e8827b7c8
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1803:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    d82f8af7-ed01-4649-849e-f248f0e02384
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1809Vulnerable target · 3 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-a3084138383423221f61594e86f5b295e5e254acd7ae5284f45e0877a084db43Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:-:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    345fcd64-d37b-425b-b64c-8b1640b7e850
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    306b7ce6-8239-4aed-9ed4-4c9f5b349f58
  3. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:-:*:*:*:*:*:arm64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    73d24713-d897-408d-893b-77a61982597d
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1903Vulnerable target · 3 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-9868fa1c12254f9aff51c0302ecb2ea1ab1d9ca0547bde09677154b24f8c7c61Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1903:-:*:*:*:*:*:arm64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    9e1ed169-6f03-4bd5-b227-5fa54db40ad7
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1903:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    5c5b5180-1e12-45c2-8275-b9e528955307
  3. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1903:-:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    b6a0db01-49cb-4445-afe8-57c2186857ba
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1909Vulnerable target · 3 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-ef5324dcc791e4e872d6c2be0aefa1d7687ca82c3b4ac5d1f72c76cce8395218Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1909:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 11
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    0d77ea14-f61d-4b9e-a385-70b88c482116
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1909:-:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 12
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    1a6fc9ee-d486-4afe-a20e-4278468a1779
  3. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1909:-:*:*:*:*:*:arm64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 10
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    9285a9b5-4759-43e7-9589-cdbca7100605
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_1803Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-a74a0925fd770075058392e2bb7a5408e96a296354955527de213995d5070448Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_1803:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 13
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    37097c39-d588-4018-b94d-5eb87b1e3d5a
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_1903Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-14b069f5c38c7de633daa144529d27da601f26ac1be85dea8792e6a0093a122bLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_1903:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 14
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    530df8c9-467c-4f4f-9fca-cdd934badf3c
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_1909Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-11ee14cb5467893e953fd2afd492aa2a80b330b2831c4c10e31a6d9476b8f7abLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_1909:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 15
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    ade7e7b1-64ac-4986-a50b-0918a42c05bb
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2019Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-25a2932c0bbcb648f7e391c8b9d34c734e5085444c03c1c206b9d4c4baa80b25Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2019:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 16
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    db79ee26-fc32-417d-a49c-a1a63165a968

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
10
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
491b9b05-ef34-4bd0-af6e-4de57a8aa9c64c756fe4-9be0-4a61-8465-cbe622956dda566e164d-c29d-45cc-84b4-37d5133b25ec5931239a-aace-46e5-840d-3efd871d4e136a54b027-e01d-494b-af38-18be7190c7ceb5f04c09-61b5-43dc-bb2c-b4d78478870fcaa7dc5b-43c0-43f4-aac0-3e3f5ce05b1ce6602340-bafd-4d39-993a-2b6a7c2b5c2be73edee5-ebda-46c5-8d7c-d757a9dec685e7ab5ab8-e2d1-4bce-b69a-731cafc92679
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
17
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
06c26862-3aec-4e05-94f9-c8b159e7ad110b7fb31b-f36d-4b9c-89a0-a37dc4abef1914f451a1-3157-4fbb-9748-315b70d5f79e2425a5e8-d2ce-4838-963f-21527de766c134a0fc83-490b-46db-8f45-0fc0e95085ae39786e28-ca69-4423-a83c-a120858081ca43602a0d-3d11-49c4-aaa8-6b170d97c2a77f7bfff9-3d6e-46ed-94a8-a0d9996fff3987a5e2f7-278e-4486-b7cf-7dc22248490f8aed7d6a-68fb-4069-b6a1-2694e1696f6b99df6973-5727-43cb-bf13-73ccb9e24702af3aea80-877f-48a6-af06-1119a04fbe32b4a73279-90d8-4859-a460-b114cff04942c7d152b6-1ea9-4346-833c-79584a3949e5c99b776e-3537-4a8c-adea-8d24ef70bca0d9321e11-cfb0-4fc3-85a9-8e97e4719c9ddfc9811b-e7ce-4681-a94f-d293e8f7ea15

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
4.6
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:L/AC:L/Au:N/C:P/I:P/A:P
7.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.