CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2020-10148

SolarWinds Orion API is vulnerable to an authentication bypass that could allow a remote attacker to execute API commands

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Nov 3, 2021). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 92.0% exploit likelihood as of Aug 4, 2026.

86.3–90.5Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

The SolarWinds Orion API is vulnerable to an authentication bypass that could allow a remote attacker to execute API commands. This vulnerability could allow a remote attacker to bypass authentication and execute API commands which may result in a compromise of the SolarWinds instance. SolarWinds Orion Platform versions 2019.4 HF 5, 2020.2 with no hotfix installed, and 2020.2 HF 1 are affected.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Dec 29, 2020
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
91%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    certcc

    Record text: SolarWinds Orion API is vulnerable to an authentication bypass that could allow a remote attacker to execute API commands

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    SolarWinds Orion API is vulnerable to an authentication bypass that could allow a remote attacker to execute API commands
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: SolarWinds Orion Authentication Bypass Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    SolarWinds Orion Authentication Bypass Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 91.98% probability · 99.81th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.919800000000; percentile 0.998100000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Nov 3, 2021 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood91.98%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 4, 2026 · 99.8th percentile · first observed Aug 4, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

certccOriginal assertion
Record text

SolarWinds Orion API is vulnerable to an authentication bypass that could allow a remote attacker to execute API commands

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
SolarWinds Orion API is vulnerable to an authentication bypass that could allow a remote attacker to execute API commands
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

SolarWinds Orion Authentication Bypass Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
SolarWinds Orion Authentication Bypass Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

91.98% probability · 99.81th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.919800000000; percentile 0.998100000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
3Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
3Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

5 scope groups

CISA-ADP · source assertedsolarwindsorion_platformDirect source scope
Affected: 2019.4
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "2019.4"}]
CISA-ADP · source assertedsolarwindsorion_platformDirect source scope
Affected: 2020.2.1
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "2020.2.1"}]
CISA-ADP · source assertedsolarwindsorion_platformDirect source scope
Affected: 2020.2
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "2020.2"}]
certcc · source assertedSolarWindsOrion PlatformDirect source scope
Affected: 2019.4 HF 5Affected: 2020.2 without hotfixAffected: 2020.2 HF 1
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "2019.4 HF 5"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "2020.2 without hotfix"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "2020.2 HF 1"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONsolarwindsorion_platformVulnerable target · 3 assertions
Version 2019.4; Version 2020.2; Version 2020.2.1Canonical identity product-84ea77439fb1b658edf0e2826e7a26f58564d5d694f7093fe66900b11d4bcad6Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:solarwinds:orion_platform:2020.2:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    5857c0f0-37c5-4cf6-b921-7d5bfe065eab
  2. cpe:2.3:a:solarwinds:orion_platform:2020.2.1:hotfix1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    60f65c7e-90d6-4bb5-ba76-593cd5786c95
  3. cpe:2.3:a:solarwinds:orion_platform:2019.4:hotfix5:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    28a11ad1-b244-4725-90ed-0e656872004f

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-391e7faeab524390123e1ed5f782756e82c750d283ae0f54737c4a4dc9612f6d · product-84ea77439fb1b658edf0e2826e7a26f58564d5d694f7093fe66900b11d4bcad6

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
3
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
93b48c7b-a4c3-42b9-9cfe-fcbd8a439412a7ae16ce-6492-4774-ba21-1f4e27134b51fe9443f2-2b2f-4a9e-84f4-86985422af5f
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
4
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
14d3efac-8668-4984-b1a3-0abd82e84a5e7a9bfe00-7810-41bd-a8a5-3e4177c5590884f0c1ea-9bb3-490c-a7f3-15ab8d8b6dd79732db18-f904-4477-9eae-b34c70aa55b2

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.5
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:L/Au:N/C:P/I:P/A:P
9.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.