CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2020-10199

Sonatype Nexus Repository before 3.21.2 allows JavaEL Injection (issue 1 of 2).

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Nov 3, 2021). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 8.8. EPSS estimates 99.1% exploit likelihood as of Aug 8, 2026.

84.5–86.1Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Sonatype Nexus Repository before 3.21.2 allows JavaEL Injection (issue 1 of 2).

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Apr 1, 2020
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
92%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    mitre

    Record text: Sonatype Nexus Repository before 3.21.2 allows JavaEL Injection (issue 1 of 2).

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Sonatype Nexus Repository before 3.21.2 allows JavaEL Injection (issue 1 of 2).
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Sonatype Nexus Repository Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Sonatype Nexus Repository Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 99.06% probability · 99.93th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.990640000000; percentile 0.999270000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Nov 3, 2021 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood99.06%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 8, 2026 · 99.9th percentile · first observed Aug 8, 2026

SeverityCVSS 8.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
mitreOriginal assertion
Record text

Sonatype Nexus Repository before 3.21.2 allows JavaEL Injection (issue 1 of 2).

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Sonatype Nexus Repository before 3.21.2 allows JavaEL Injection (issue 1 of 2).
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Sonatype Nexus Repository Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Sonatype Nexus Repository Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

99.06% probability · 99.93th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.990640000000; percentile 0.999270000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
1Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
1Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

mitre · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope
Affected: n/a
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONsonatypenexusVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 3.21.2)Canonical identity product-0944b29dc223b8b1d3128ab3558cfe0eec235410bb3a96c278bc44c745661ba6Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:sonatype:nexus:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 3.21.2
    Match ID
    8b98da8a-c0ce-4902-9dd1-3fbec00215fc

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-329e3af68e43d206be80d7aea2205a8e2cc113ca0d44d2277c11d603e8ee9cdc · product-0944b29dc223b8b1d3128ab3558cfe0eec235410bb3a96c278bc44c745661ba6

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
57ead9e2-6dc1-4481-8ec8-ba8819ccd513
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
c77f5ff6-affc-4fcd-a5a5-35c30cc5e306

Assessments

CVSS by origin

8.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.0
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:L/Au:S/C:C/I:C/A:C
8.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.