CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2021-1782

A race condition was addressed with improved locking.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Nov 3, 2021). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 7.0. EPSS estimates 2.2% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

65.8–68.6Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

A race condition was addressed with improved locking. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.2, Security Update 2021-001 Catalina, Security Update 2021-001 Mojave, watchOS 7.3, tvOS 14.4, iOS 14.4 and iPadOS 14.4. A malicious application may be able to elevate privileges. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Apr 2, 2021
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
97%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    apple

    Record text: A race condition was addressed with improved locking. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.2, Security Update 2021-001 Catalina, Security Update 2021-001 Mojave, watchOS 7.3, tvOS 14.4, iOS 14.4 and iPadOS 14.4. A malicious application may be able to elevate privileges. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    A race condition was addressed with improved locking. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.2, Security Update 2021-001 Catalina, Security Update 2021-001 Mojave, watchOS 7.3, tvOS 14.4, iOS 14.4 and iPadOS 14.4. A malicious application may be able to elevate privileges. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Apple Multiple Products Race Condition Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Apple Multiple Products Race Condition Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 2.22% probability · 81.4th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.022220000000; percentile 0.814030000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Nov 3, 2021 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood2.22%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 81.4th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.0

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

appleOriginal assertion
Record text

A race condition was addressed with improved locking. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.2, Security Update 2021-001 Catalina, Security Update 2021-001 Mojave, watchOS 7.3, tvOS 14.4, iOS 14.4 and iPadOS 14.4. A malicious application may be able to elevate privileges. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
A race condition was addressed with improved locking. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.2, Security Update 2021-001 Catalina, Security Update 2021-001 Mojave, watchOS 7.3, tvOS 14.4, iOS 14.4 and iPadOS 14.4. A malicious application may be able to elevate privileges. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Apple Multiple Products Race Condition Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Apple Multiple Products Race Condition Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

2.22% probability · 81.4th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.022220000000; percentile 0.814030000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
23Underlying assertions
6Canonical products
23Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

10 scope groups

apple · source assertedAppleiOS and iPadOSDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified to before 14.4 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified", "lessThan": "14.4", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedApplemacOSDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified to before 11.2 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified", "lessThan": "11.2", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedApplemacOSDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified to before 7.3 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified", "lessThan": "7.3", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedApplemacOSDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified to before 14.4 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified", "lessThan": "14.4", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMappleipadosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 14.4)Canonical identity product-8e7094ac066248cd4828b6ec8e3a96d010ed1c68f6083af46638775d737da0adLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:ipados:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 14.4
    Match ID
    17aaea98-4c05-496e-81a7-ac031fcddda5
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMappleiphone_osVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 14.4)Canonical identity product-665d7155d02581979844685e7fca6c2680af997f9200af455887b1c71c483272Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:iphone_os:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 14.4
    Match ID
    062166d7-2444-4022-b7e4-13884c43edca
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMapplemacosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 11.0, < 11.2)Canonical identity product-d6f53ba981bb58ea2b0d24855b8ff4a18555e3a17a9dce0d38460a69537bbc63Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:macos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 20
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 11.0; through excluding 11.2
    Match ID
    9b0973f4-d921-4060-9384-43d176f26967
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMapplemac_os_xVulnerable target · 18 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 10.14, < 10.14.6); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 10.15, < 10.15.7); Version 10.14.6; Version 10.15.7Canonical identity product-94613e1f5039e71a9805f20421d56ac6a61e2707d3f97a08fdf6823a65dc7b76Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2019-007:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c68ae52b-5139-40a4-ae9a-e752dbf07d1b
  2. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 10.14; through excluding 10.14.6
    Match ID
    6de2b03f-94ee-4e32-b366-fe31a7031403
  3. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:supplemental_update:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 19
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c1c795b9-e58d-467c-83a8-2d45c792292f
  4. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2020-002:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 10
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    d4c6098e-edbd-4a85-8282-b2e9d9333872
  5. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2020-006:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 14
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    6d69914d-46c7-4a0e-a075-c863c1692d33
  6. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2019-006:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    0d5d1970-6d2a-42ca-a203-42023d71730d
  7. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 10.15; through excluding 10.15.7
    Match ID
    db8a73f8-3074-4b32-b9f6-343b6b1988c5
  8. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 18
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a654b8a2-fc30-4171-b0bb-366cd7ed4b6a
  9. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2019-004:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a369d48b-6a0a-47ae-9513-d5e2e6f30931
  10. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2020-007:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 15
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    9cdb4476-b521-43e4-a129-8718a8e0a8cd
  11. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2020-005:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 13
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    68c7a97a-3801-44fa-96ca-10298fa39883
  12. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2020-001:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    0fd3467d-7679-479f-9c0b-a93f7cd0929d
  13. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2020-003:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 11
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    518bb47b-dd76-4e8c-9f10-7ebc1e146191
  14. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:supplemental_update_2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 17
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c7a0615b-d958-4bbf-b53f-aa839a0fe845
  15. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    693e7dae-bbf0-4d48-9f8a-20ddbd4aac0c
  16. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:supplemental_update:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 16
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    2c88bd98-46f5-447f-963a-fb9b167e31be
  17. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2019-005:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    510f8317-94da-498e-927a-83d5f41af54a
  18. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.14.6:security_update_2020-004:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 12
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    63940a55-d851-46eb-9668-d82befc1fe95
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMappletvosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 14.4)Canonical identity product-e5ea88731ef28ba75a5b40a72b650d8199d1f49ce8c4cd688de7cdb41dc8b9fbLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:tvos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 21
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 14.4
    Match ID
    7320cf7c-3750-4caa-8b7c-cafc7e65354a
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMapplewatchosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 7.3)Canonical identity product-1b28e85eba5cb27cd93d563b4ea63a555b916484cee543c65fdbe57d529fc0d1Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:watchos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 22
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 7.3
    Match ID
    9aa4c59b-ec23-4723-9dff-412938209de5

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

6 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-1b28e85eba5cb27cd93d563b4ea63a555b916484cee543c65fdbe57d529fc0d1

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
dde9bdbc-163d-4f58-b9e4-2c6bd7d5d5a9
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-665d7155d02581979844685e7fca6c2680af997f9200af455887b1c71c483272

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
7ea0deca-61ea-4cc6-b73c-337c3e6b9589
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-8e7094ac066248cd4828b6ec8e3a96d010ed1c68f6083af46638775d737da0ad

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
05f8c55c-c827-4d88-84f5-c35ba0042ca7
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-94613e1f5039e71a9805f20421d56ac6a61e2707d3f97a08fdf6823a65dc7b76

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
18
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
02d9be30-ac82-440e-8188-e13d5dc41ed0099a023d-c2e2-4b61-8c01-86e2b979f0fc0d404809-d3c6-48bb-a8d0-b36215c1894f21790f29-a7ab-47a7-9423-f2461d21b97430a39fd3-d469-4bc9-b8c6-d696e8ba6d7846c8dc67-3288-4e99-910d-b930b206ac724af2ab9c-1ec2-406a-91b6-e0aa31c72f0d5abe6b9c-7fba-4446-acdd-b4b2e76b3cf574eaf420-9884-4d6f-8dba-21a64b2c77ea77e12e02-d34f-4b2c-a8e9-7df4a37bcc9a7e493bc1-9af3-4fac-be28-9001c9e207818813845b-8e63-4dad-8e5d-37607786d0dca5491173-1e5f-408f-9ef8-6cc37ad365c6bc15c0bb-2503-43aa-a2ed-dd5abe679052c0beecc5-a292-419c-8719-a12136ae2900c4112edb-6cfe-4b88-abc9-2aecf4028139dfad2f22-4697-4cff-8088-bc1628252577f633a2b5-e0a5-4bc5-806a-f468ba88795d
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-d6f53ba981bb58ea2b0d24855b8ff4a18555e3a17a9dce0d38460a69537bbc63

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
e5421fd4-6aed-4752-b349-ecab3c4c89c5
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-e5ea88731ef28ba75a5b40a72b650d8199d1f49ce8c4cd688de7cdb41dc8b9fb

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
394b5124-61d9-4331-8b0d-ceea125229ef
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
4
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
7e71859d-f532-4599-9c12-6211cfce79a098f3c40e-e267-4a5d-b0e8-b819222060459fa357bb-3a26-4366-9940-1b9c0f5200e3a1c98e2c-baf6-415a-b4f6-aca14b9069cd

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.0
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
6.9
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:L/AC:M/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C
7.0
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.0
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.0Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.0
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.