CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2021-30657

A logic issue was addressed with improved state management.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Nov 3, 2021). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 5.5. EPSS estimates 68.5% exploit likelihood as of Aug 26, 2026.

73.8–76.1Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

A logic issue was addressed with improved state management. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.3, Security Update 2021-002 Catalina. A malicious application may bypass Gatekeeper checks. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Sep 8, 2021
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
97%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    apple

    Record text: A logic issue was addressed with improved state management. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.3, Security Update 2021-002 Catalina. A malicious application may bypass Gatekeeper checks. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    A logic issue was addressed with improved state management. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.3, Security Update 2021-002 Catalina. A malicious application may bypass Gatekeeper checks. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Apple macOS Unspecified Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Apple macOS Unspecified Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 68.53% probability · 99.28th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.685310000000; percentile 0.992810000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Nov 3, 2021 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood68.53%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 26, 2026 · 99.3th percentile · first observed Aug 26, 2026

SeverityCVSS 5.5

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

appleOriginal assertion
Record text

A logic issue was addressed with improved state management. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.3, Security Update 2021-002 Catalina. A malicious application may bypass Gatekeeper checks. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
A logic issue was addressed with improved state management. This issue is fixed in macOS Big Sur 11.3, Security Update 2021-002 Catalina. A malicious application may bypass Gatekeeper checks. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited..
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Apple macOS Unspecified Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Apple macOS Unspecified Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

68.53% probability · 99.28th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.685310000000; percentile 0.992810000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
10Underlying assertions
2Canonical products
10Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

4 scope groups

apple · source assertedApplemacOSDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified to before 11.3 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified", "lessThan": "11.3", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedApplemacOSDirect source scope
Affected: unspecified to before 2021 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "unspecified", "lessThan": "2021", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMapplemacosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 11.0, < 11.3)Canonical identity product-d6f53ba981bb58ea2b0d24855b8ff4a18555e3a17a9dce0d38460a69537bbc63Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:macos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 11.0; through excluding 11.3
    Match ID
    4e699ccc-31f5-458e-a59c-79b3af143747
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMapplemac_os_xVulnerable target · 9 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 10.15, <= 10.15.5); Version 10.15.6; Version 10.15.7Canonical identity product-94613e1f5039e71a9805f20421d56ac6a61e2707d3f97a08fdf6823a65dc7b76Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a654b8a2-fc30-4171-b0bb-366cd7ed4b6a
  2. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:security_update_2020-005:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    7fd7176c-f4d1-43a7-9e49-ba92ca0d9980
  3. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:supplemental_update:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c1c795b9-e58d-467c-83a8-2d45c792292f
  4. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.6:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    ef833c94-f436-407f-a3da-32be68a493c4
  5. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:security_update_2020:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    f12cc8b5-c1eb-419e-8496-b9a3864656ad
  6. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.6:supplemental_update:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    2e5a4d99-706d-4b12-9d41-13a480b3df0d
  7. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:security_update_2020-007:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    2703de0b-8a9e-4a9d-9ae8-028e22bf47ca
  8. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 10.15; through including 10.15.5
    Match ID
    da6ab65c-6c48-4c3b-bbab-0f64618738a2
  9. cpe:2.3:o:apple:mac_os_x:10.15.7:security_update_2020-001:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    f1f4bf7f-90d4-4668-b4e6-b06f4070f448

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

2 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-94613e1f5039e71a9805f20421d56ac6a61e2707d3f97a08fdf6823a65dc7b76

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
9
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
11ebb0a1-5421-40a7-8e82-0710cfc9c8f918fe84ab-e279-444a-b18d-cca8207caddd447c0288-f7a5-47cf-8f88-172b4298c747579d7c44-abbd-43e2-80a9-cf5ed2499fb964b9a158-17f5-4066-a767-ad41a0206b4b9f5c641f-8ffe-4665-9c0e-6e961a00e5b3a1764c44-1269-4580-a33c-38a528b07af9dea35373-8e75-43c2-8a02-db68cc69e61ff76f4bc9-8ff4-461d-8ffa-b288a772fc92
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-d6f53ba981bb58ea2b0d24855b8ff4a18555e3a17a9dce0d38460a69537bbc63

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
286713c0-92f7-4796-89e4-f3804a11736a
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
fa88ba7a-96fb-4996-a4a9-15613ca63017ff6e7c35-506a-44f2-a64e-61577d3bbf83

Assessments

CVSS by origin

5.5
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:N/I:H/A:N
4.3
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:M/Au:N/C:N/I:P/A:N
5.5
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:N/I:H/A:N
5.5
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:N/I:H/A:N

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

5.5Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:N/I:H/A:N
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
5.5
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.