CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2021-31196

Microsoft Exchange Server Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

69.9–86.6Priority evidence range
As known Jul 19, 2026, 5:00 AM UTCgen-56ccdaf9

Normalized restatement

Microsoft Exchange Server Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Jul 14, 2021
Updated
Jan 12, 2026
Evidence coverage
72%
CISA KEVCatalog member

Apply mitigations per vendor instructions or discontinue use of the product if mitigations are unavailable.

FIRST EPSS46.38%

2026-07-18 · v2026.06.15 · percentile 98.7%

Source stateConflict visible

Distinct CVSS assessments remain side by side; none are averaged.

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPindependent enrichment
container

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

CVEderivative copy
container

CVE Program Container

microsoftoriginal assertion
container

Microsoft Exchange Server Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

CISA KEVoriginal assertion
observed_exploitation

Microsoft Exchange Server Information Disclosure Vulnerability

FIRST EPSSoriginal assertion
model_probability

Probability 0.463800000000; percentile 0.986830000000

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
MicrosoftMicrosoft Exchange Server 2013 Cumulative Update 23
[{"status": "affected", "version": "15.00.0", "lessThan": "15.00.1497.023", "versionType": "custom"}]unknown
MicrosoftMicrosoft Exchange Server 2016 Cumulative Update 20
[{"status": "affected", "version": "15.01.0", "lessThan": "15.01.2242.012", "versionType": "custom"}]unknown
MicrosoftMicrosoft Exchange Server 2016 Cumulative Update 21
[{"status": "affected", "version": "15.01.0", "lessThan": "15.01.2308.014", "versionType": "custom"}]unknown
MicrosoftMicrosoft Exchange Server 2019 Cumulative Update 10
[{"status": "affected", "version": "15.02.0", "lessThan": "15.02.0922.013", "versionType": "custom"}]unknown
MicrosoftMicrosoft Exchange Server 2019 Cumulative Update 9
[{"status": "affected", "version": "15.02.0", "lessThan": "15.02.0858.015", "versionType": "custom"}]unknown
Unknown vendorUnknown product
cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:exchange_server:2013:cumulative_update_23:*:*:*:*:*:*supported
Unknown vendorUnknown product
cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:exchange_server:2016:cumulative_update_20:*:*:*:*:*:*supported
Unknown vendorUnknown product
cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:exchange_server:2016:cumulative_update_21:*:*:*:*:*:*supported
Unknown vendorUnknown product
cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:exchange_server:2019:cumulative_update_10:*:*:*:*:*:*supported
Unknown vendorUnknown product
cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:exchange_server:2019:cumulative_update_9:*:*:*:*:*:*supported

Assessments

CVSS by origin

6.5
nvd@nist.govCVSS 2.0 · role PrimaryAV:N/AC:L/Au:S/C:P/I:P/A:P
7.2
nvd@nist.govCVSS 3.1 · role SecondaryCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:H/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.2
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role SecondaryCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:H/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.2
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknownCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:H/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C

Limitations and unknowns

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; unresolved scope remains unknown.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative and are not independent corroboration.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Factor D is unknown in Public Core because no accepted canonical mapping-obligation ledger is present.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.