CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2021-34484

Windows User Profile Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Mar 31, 2022). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 21.8% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

68.8–82.0Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

Windows User Profile Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Aug 12, 2021
Updated
Aug 10, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Windows User Profile Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Windows User Profile Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows User Profile Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Windows User Profile Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 21.83% probability · 97.64th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.218270000000; percentile 0.976390000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Mar 31, 2022 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood21.83%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 97.6th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Aug 10, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Windows User Profile Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Windows User Profile Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Windows User Profile Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Windows User Profile Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

21.83% probability · 97.64th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.218270000000; percentile 0.976390000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
18Underlying assertions
16Canonical products
18Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

41 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1507Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.10240.0 to before 10.0.10240.19022 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.10240.0", "lessThan": "10.0.10240.19022", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1607Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.4583 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.4583", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1909Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.18363.1734 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.18363.1734", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 2004Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19041.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19041.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 20H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19042.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19042.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 21H1Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19043.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19043.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 7Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.0 to before 6.1.7601.25685 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.25685", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 7 Service Pack 1Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.0 to before 6.1.7601.25685 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.25685", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 8.1Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.0 to before 6.3.9600.20094 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.20094", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.25685 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.25685", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.25685 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.25685", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.21192 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.21192", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.21192 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.21192", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.23435 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.23435", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.20094 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.20094", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.20094 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.20094", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.23435 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.23435", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.4583 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.4583", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.4583 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.4583", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server version 2004Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19041.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19041.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server version 20H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19042.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19042.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
25
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
100c0724-afdf-46fe-b442-75db600134e619ce0104-caaf-4606-8469-cfc2947d55c523a3f1d5-ec6f-469c-a829-a30cd338089924603069-3b72-42f2-9c5e-403ddebe6c0153c20a3c-9183-4780-9348-f02d743c46d456cd4a4d-a4e8-4d15-9016-d7ddfd3930d85ff9ee8c-fbf0-4945-b697-4c40ccf2a11e68e1bbbb-d68d-4d3d-888a-8bd4cd2f04d583d2368a-384b-4466-bdba-83cb897dd9248730cf61-7b72-41d2-95b9-acb63702b28a89438681-355d-4864-bfe8-6bdf4f32d4d68c2a8c3b-1e9c-49dc-89af-71f8a6760fd38eccff56-1594-4fd9-a050-7a2a979fafd290c279a3-1a53-4363-bd3d-f0017447fb14986ecbf3-7882-41e6-9025-ce69729e4664a66490c7-e91a-4681-9dd1-e1c2ba715bfeb6207442-1698-49fe-a5b1-b18ae7fe5349c73f40f4-2dcc-42aa-8293-154d9da00f19d7d54d10-eafa-4db2-b8b8-5df88a27ccbedd0697eb-4567-4b2d-aaf1-555454171375e2fdba2d-acd1-4a19-8c10-bf6b33defcf6ea2a19dd-6e3a-4a50-ad68-91ca684c948df4e56b25-a951-433c-925e-f63f4b6ae2ccf8ab25a4-e736-45c7-8e29-7e869a4e34c8fcf43971-f375-4f09-bb8e-caa6b9456c7c
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
18
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
02203729-a4e7-4b30-98a1-51f6c9acb36d12cdafe3-5ad9-433d-a2c2-49bc82855305183b2d9a-2fd1-4a15-b5b5-3100d425374631c403e0-d067-4583-8b14-a49cd1028bb6471c402f-3052-4041-8e4f-e206e0005c0e5cc38625-0579-489d-b59a-8ba85da5c1195f502cc0-f758-47ff-8a58-f860158fdcd56f136aa1-dc02-4021-82c1-f75993cb01f788036d15-c2a1-452c-b9ac-dede2f27f4078cc9cc29-3c4b-4efc-b9ff-7addf994921795197250-1a64-4732-aa83-62b143809212ba806ac6-6192-4173-96d0-8211b8da1e14c49f1b49-f787-4741-bf4e-8153b299a201dc146e6b-b249-4ce3-b0a6-6ed48e246d6be3c81788-5ab1-48e1-944a-38f158614846f3850c71-4b9b-49c6-a722-a3122e7a6bfdf701d6d7-744e-4128-9e51-e98ffdc3d6fffd26f96c-3fbc-4a40-b63b-0a5be7d600df

Assessments

CVSS by origin

4.6
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:L/AC:L/Au:N/C:P/I:P/A:P
7.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.