CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2021-36948

Windows Update Medic Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Nov 3, 2021). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 23.3% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

69.1–80.4Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

Windows Update Medic Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Aug 12, 2021
Updated
Aug 10, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Windows Update Medic Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Windows Update Medic Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows Update Medic Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Windows Update Medic Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 23.27% probability · 97.78th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.232700000000; percentile 0.977750000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Nov 3, 2021 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood23.27%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 97.8th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Aug 10, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Windows Update Medic Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Windows Update Medic Service Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Windows Update Medic Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Windows Update Medic Service Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

23.27% probability · 97.78th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.232700000000; percentile 0.977750000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
8Underlying assertions
8Canonical products
8Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

18 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1909Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.18363.1734 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.18363.1734", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 2004Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19041.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19041.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 20H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19042.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19042.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 21H1Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19043.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19043.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2114 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2114", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server version 2004Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19041.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19041.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server version 20H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19042.1165 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19042.1165", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1809Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.17763.2114)Canonical identity product-a3084138383423221f61594e86f5b295e5e254acd7ae5284f45e0877a084db43Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.17763.2114
    Match ID
    f8d40d82-1d88-4cf1-b961-f9f28426c56b
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1909Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.18363.1734)Canonical identity product-ef5324dcc791e4e872d6c2be0aefa1d7687ca82c3b4ac5d1f72c76cce8395218Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1909:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.18363.1734
    Match ID
    3dd2bde6-67c6-48e2-bed0-12e4cc7ee6bc
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_2004Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19041.1165)Canonical identity product-9b245936275be71b526838fc72ea633d195b35bdd9dfc31bb6df51e7700edeccLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_2004:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19041.1165
    Match ID
    70336a6a-de45-4604-be81-10da4df12d3f
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_20h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19042.1165)Canonical identity product-55e90faed8848f3d316cf702d119e83086b6dc5a963d9947a7df1c589f50346dLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_20h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19042.1165
    Match ID
    7ab7321a-1f89-48b3-8e5a-94791ab2bc86
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_21h1Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19043.1165)Canonical identity product-e0c6c3f5c5e95b5b83fbbf719a7de2471749e1ca250bebf19bc7898a937a00edLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_21h1:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19043.1165
    Match ID
    2a860f2b-0533-46f7-879e-b932e4e44f0d
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2004Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19041.1165)Canonical identity product-571f6df0fa50d71be9551414060ed8bfcdb500437871cf9595b7fa6b034cecbdLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2004:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19041.1165
    Match ID
    c90bec5f-e0a8-43c5-bb0d-251d19bfd66b
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2019Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.17763.2114)Canonical identity product-25a2932c0bbcb648f7e391c8b9d34c734e5085444c03c1c206b9d4c4baa80b25Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2019:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.17763.2114
    Match ID
    61219c24-a1ae-427f-bbf8-a984bcb1ca6f
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_20h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19042.1165)Canonical identity product-457c0c3b89fb1cf896e8491223eac8b0cb1ea61ce3174f915e4fe1032759d5a2Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_20h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19042.1165
    Match ID
    45a85e4c-6c7a-4b72-832d-ac12a78565c3

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
10
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
0f794676-e065-4a6c-a8f0-6f00fd91595925ad9301-8e46-4cd5-b5b5-71a54c515f772a018c41-71a3-4c14-84b4-86bda4ef81022adf7ac4-75dd-44d7-bdc5-919c6505ef2b319fd0d8-b938-47d3-8cf0-6cc07a0f553c3a67bf70-be2f-4d40-b71d-cd74595a44553f6f95eb-e893-414e-af79-177ebca90c656cd293bf-d63d-40fd-aada-2d029e853bc6959911ad-edf8-4d79-be0b-1b205b56bc58bcda5a4d-22c1-47ed-bb8d-443f09708d14
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
8
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
018cc9d3-4c61-4bb0-a77c-921fe95c02df1b2fb879-6d53-4b64-9e89-72acf12175f93999dcc5-f7f9-4dbd-b584-b2ec5b0d49e147408e1b-543d-4953-83c6-e82e7ed9cde5522b65a6-2e6b-4951-a7a8-d377fa5a9f6780077d82-e518-4cdf-bfc8-d5d72c51e702f3be5334-ad70-48c6-8074-0bf86c9a6cdafc69824a-4561-4daf-8671-7296a1592604

Assessments

CVSS by origin

4.6
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:L/AC:L/Au:N/C:P/I:P/A:P
7.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.