CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2021-44515

Zoho ManageEngine Desktop Central is vulnerable to authentication bypass, leading to remote code execution on the server, as exploited in the wild in December 2021.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Dec 10, 2021). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 99.9% exploit likelihood as of Aug 8, 2026.

87.1–88.7Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Zoho ManageEngine Desktop Central is vulnerable to authentication bypass, leading to remote code execution on the server, as exploited in the wild in December 2021. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3. For MSP builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For MSP builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Dec 12, 2021
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
97%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    mitre

    Record text: Zoho ManageEngine Desktop Central is vulnerable to authentication bypass, leading to remote code execution on the server, as exploited in the wild in December 2021. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3. For MSP builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For MSP builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Zoho ManageEngine Desktop Central is vulnerable to authentication bypass, leading to remote code execution on the server, as exploited in the wild in December 2021. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3. For MSP builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For MSP builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Zoho Desktop Central Authentication Bypass Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Zoho Desktop Central Authentication Bypass Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 99.87% probability · 99.96th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.998670000000; percentile 0.999620000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Dec 10, 2021 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood99.87%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 8, 2026 · 100th percentile · first observed Aug 8, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
mitreOriginal assertion
Record text

Zoho ManageEngine Desktop Central is vulnerable to authentication bypass, leading to remote code execution on the server, as exploited in the wild in December 2021. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3. For MSP builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For MSP builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Zoho ManageEngine Desktop Central is vulnerable to authentication bypass, leading to remote code execution on the server, as exploited in the wild in December 2021. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For Enterprise builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3. For MSP builds 10.1.2127.17 and earlier, upgrade to 10.1.2127.18. For MSP builds 10.1.2128.0 through 10.1.2137.2, upgrade to 10.1.2137.3.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Zoho Desktop Central Authentication Bypass Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Zoho Desktop Central Authentication Bypass Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

99.87% probability · 99.96th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.998670000000; percentile 0.999620000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
4Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
4Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

mitre · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope
Affected: n/a
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONzohocorpmanageengine_desktop_centralVulnerable target · 4 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.1.2127.18); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 10.1.2128.0, < 10.1.2137.3)Canonical identity product-8e939bb9b0b58515551251e6399af3a15725e4805e6848ea45fb44015bbb2c21Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:zohocorp:manageengine_desktop_central:*:*:*:*:enterprise:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.1.2127.18
    Match ID
    a013c0c5-075c-4424-90c0-5c51b844be59
  2. cpe:2.3:a:zohocorp:manageengine_desktop_central:*:*:*:*:enterprise:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 10.1.2128.0; through excluding 10.1.2137.3
    Match ID
    04b6af62-c406-4fae-ade3-9f0306e50cc9
  3. cpe:2.3:a:zohocorp:manageengine_desktop_central:*:*:*:*:managed_service_providers:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 10.1.2128.0; through excluding 10.1.2137.3
    Match ID
    449b7973-51f5-403f-863d-c308f3ccc259
  4. cpe:2.3:a:zohocorp:manageengine_desktop_central:*:*:*:*:managed_service_providers:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.1.2127.18
    Match ID
    ac57eef7-65f9-40fe-b90b-6f3ca793b3a5

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-76abf9127e48519ab2b0d992e528e41eff46eda7ca5b347885ae82e9e66c68ef · product-8e939bb9b0b58515551251e6399af3a15725e4805e6848ea45fb44015bbb2c21

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
4
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
2fd31d88-2ec6-4a8b-a952-b130c574e41438ddc593-22bc-4b0f-af1b-0f7dbb6bab7342c1f587-9a99-4d22-8217-71064fd46df9be355d0b-7439-4b2e-918e-c6c4d977a379
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
f470f3c7-df84-442f-b9cc-d887d5c33833

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
10.0
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:L/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C
9.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.