CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2022-21882

Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Feb 4, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 59.2% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

72.9–86.6Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Jan 11, 2022
Updated
Aug 15, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 59.21% probability · 99.12th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.592050000000; percentile 0.991170000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Feb 4, 2022 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood59.20%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 99.1th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Aug 15, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Win32k Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

59.21% probability · 99.12th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.592050000000; percentile 0.991170000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
10Underlying assertions
9Canonical products
10Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

20 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.17763.2452 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2452", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2452 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2452", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1909Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.18363.2037 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.18363.2037", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 20H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19042.1466 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19042.1466", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 21H1Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19043.1466 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19043.1466", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 21H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.19043.0 to before 10.0.19044.1466 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.19043.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19044.1466", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 version 21H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.22000.434 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22000.434", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2452 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2452", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.2452 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.2452", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2022Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.20348.0 to before 10.0.20348.469 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.20348.0", "lessThan": "10.0.20348.469", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server version 20H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.19042.1466 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19042.1466", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1809Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.17763.2452)Canonical identity product-a3084138383423221f61594e86f5b295e5e254acd7ae5284f45e0877a084db43Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:*:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.17763.2452
    Match ID
    54a85f24-ab36-4a04-b420-f19d1a9de26c
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:*:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.17763.2452
    Match ID
    79a35dbe-c34d-464d-b037-aadb63b221aa
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1909Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.18363.2037)Canonical identity product-ef5324dcc791e4e872d6c2be0aefa1d7687ca82c3b4ac5d1f72c76cce8395218Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1909:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.18363.2037
    Match ID
    2358bdb5-db2b-4a60-a9f2-06f2cb0628eb
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_20h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19042.1466)Canonical identity product-55e90faed8848f3d316cf702d119e83086b6dc5a963d9947a7df1c589f50346dLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_20h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19042.1466
    Match ID
    ee8daf46-1702-46d1-aaf3-cefa567953d1
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_21h1Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19043.1466)Canonical identity product-e0c6c3f5c5e95b5b83fbbf719a7de2471749e1ca250bebf19bc7898a937a00edLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_21h1:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19043.1466
    Match ID
    9d4cb80e-5c0a-430c-9f56-9295ebbfd9c4
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_21h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19044.1466)Canonical identity product-ec10c9f400f23fdf118887f60fe116ffde4adb76dcf118cdd3a7556fd033da3bLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_21h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19044.1466
    Match ID
    38105e41-f04d-444b-a9f7-51e94726e1e2
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_11_21h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.22000.434)Canonical identity product-7fe28b5b5b17e017d9554204df059dd619746ffb5c80da87bcbfb1c52720d2f4Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_11_21h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.22000.434
    Match ID
    7048a3c3-6fb5-46fa-a709-4a51362e84b2
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2019Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.17763.2452)Canonical identity product-25a2932c0bbcb648f7e391c8b9d34c734e5085444c03c1c206b9d4c4baa80b25Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2019:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.17763.2452
    Match ID
    5b6fdb29-c2f4-44fb-8703-962e4fc7e842
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2022Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.20348.469)Canonical identity product-d196d31962e613955a91e33e795c22dcfa7bf25173abebaca616a6350cce9ce1Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2022:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.20348.469
    Match ID
    e428440e-270f-40d6-872e-c5ea389860db
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_20h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19042.1466)Canonical identity product-457c0c3b89fb1cf896e8491223eac8b0cb1ea61ce3174f915e4fe1032759d5a2Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_20h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19042.1466
    Match ID
    d0ee46d4-66cc-4a17-9847-dcfb4b15d40e

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
11
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
05044853-1a27-491c-8aae-fc8acf52eae90ac4efa5-f5ce-4c34-8ec0-3bf4e0be9ec10dd72550-be2b-42fa-8d89-ce83c6d352e61d08da10-fa44-41f4-8c4e-13f18cea785a1e6d9c88-00f0-48d0-99ac-0682ef17c6dd389be85b-810d-4eb1-bfce-6bdf28f7b7f9718b98bf-9b8f-4e0f-bc0e-d2ed3cb4caf274b46eea-7d3c-4296-be5d-3e517c4d1bc49feff4bc-cc9f-4e5b-9cf1-68f652120fdea77f93ac-43a4-4933-9f5a-0832fd347f8baefac10e-efc4-4b8e-bb04-fcc2fa4cacdf
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
10
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
1dd3334b-c7e5-431f-93ad-e37ed6762cd81f8a7137-7de8-4dc7-ab47-46f661f5ee935d8c5199-ebe9-4c95-9ed0-6b5db772c6eb6e71ea79-6b74-4b05-bbd5-f8ca004ceb43749c199c-7c5e-4a39-8f7c-8cb2475600217e33b258-7678-409d-b170-9c2026dd954ba2802f4b-6163-4f7c-8f43-d125c22fea8bb08215da-1d30-4c28-b941-d86ad7d6455ec87199d0-4933-48b5-8cb4-4524bb85a95fcc81621d-aa1d-45de-8a9b-e13f995894da

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.2
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:L/AC:L/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C
7.0
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.0
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.0Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.0
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.