CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2022-23176

WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances allow a remote attacker with unprivileged credentials to access the system with a privileged management session via exposed management access.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Apr 11, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 8.8. EPSS estimates 12.7% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

71.8–73.3Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances allow a remote attacker with unprivileged credentials to access the system with a privileged management session via exposed management access. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U1, 12.x before 12.1.3_U3, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.7_U3.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Feb 24, 2022
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
98%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    mitre

    Record text: WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances allow a remote attacker with unprivileged credentials to access the system with a privileged management session via exposed management access. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U1, 12.x before 12.1.3_U3, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.7_U3.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances allow a remote attacker with unprivileged credentials to access the system with a privileged management session via exposed management access. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U1, 12.x before 12.1.3_U3, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.7_U3.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 12.69% probability · 95.96th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.126920000000; percentile 0.959610000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Apr 11, 2022 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood12.69%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 96th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 8.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
mitreOriginal assertion
Record text

WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances allow a remote attacker with unprivileged credentials to access the system with a privileged management session via exposed management access. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U1, 12.x before 12.1.3_U3, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.7_U3.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances allow a remote attacker with unprivileged credentials to access the system with a privileged management session via exposed management access. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U1, 12.x before 12.1.3_U3, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.7_U3.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

12.69% probability · 95.96th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.126920000000; percentile 0.959610000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
9Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
9Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

mitre · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope
Affected: n/a
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMwatchguardfirewareVulnerable target · 9 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 12.0.0, < 12.1.3); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 12.2.0, < 12.5.7); Version 12.1.3; Version 12.5.7; Version 12.7.2Canonical identity product-b3c858dbbd7d31323f3fab0b9d99180b38a4cf1792b04620ba1da977488196d6Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.7.2:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    ca32519c-7b8b-4270-bbad-7cafad28aa5e
  2. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.5.7:u2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    e7170909-0964-4229-8dd6-304cebfeea32
  3. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.5.7:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    c41626a1-91d4-4c45-9399-eb45dbd62492
  4. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    eb0676ca-e9bf-4cb8-99d2-7fa0acc711ea
  5. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:-:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    0f3e6444-aa30-4f87-ab97-12601cedf14e
  6. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.5.7:u1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    9c03747f-6726-4d2a-a888-25b592549ed0
  7. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 12.0.0; through excluding 12.1.3
    Match ID
    e7c2e450-c7dc-40f4-928c-2323428e4df4
  8. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    48106213-c927-4232-a95f-4e6962e72bf9
  9. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 12.2.0; through excluding 12.5.7
    Match ID
    f6f1e4f7-f27a-4155-ae19-bfd52439e730

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-0afe2030e12385af1223ee9a2cbc34de083ebd57f9dbabf60db236b619aedc57 · product-b3c858dbbd7d31323f3fab0b9d99180b38a4cf1792b04620ba1da977488196d6

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
9
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
02ac4641-9f22-4c21-8e8b-165b454ccc7a0a12ed4d-49a1-4dd3-8a4a-c37bef9b7e33132b9e11-e513-43b0-b3a9-50dc8537975920bde4d0-aa16-41e5-8163-9a717548bb589233000f-b8f9-4bb3-9f2f-946d040a9b679e0ae100-5e07-44e5-89df-f19840fc4bd9de988ca7-f7d6-432f-959d-d6cbadb58bfbf6c9bd58-bf1b-4410-9fe1-25a42c722ae6f78a7d81-73ce-4c4c-a8bc-b7e35c8629fc
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
b515cf2b-6caf-4830-a893-f9a54a2e9a8f

Assessments

CVSS by origin

8.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.0
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:L/Au:S/C:C/I:C/A:C
8.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.