CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2022-26318

On WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances, an unauthenticated user can execute arbitrary code, aka FBX-22786.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Mar 25, 2022). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 78.2% exploit likelihood as of Aug 26, 2026.

84.8–86.4Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

On WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances, an unauthenticated user can execute arbitrary code, aka FBX-22786. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U2, 12.x before 12.1.3_U8, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.9_U2.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Mar 4, 2022
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
98%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    mitre

    Record text: On WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances, an unauthenticated user can execute arbitrary code, aka FBX-22786. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U2, 12.x before 12.1.3_U8, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.9_U2.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    On WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances, an unauthenticated user can execute arbitrary code, aka FBX-22786. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U2, 12.x before 12.1.3_U8, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.9_U2.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Appliances Arbitrary Code Execution

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Appliances Arbitrary Code Execution
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 78.16% probability · 99.54th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.781570000000; percentile 0.995410000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Mar 25, 2022 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood78.16%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 26, 2026 · 99.5th percentile · first observed Aug 26, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
mitreOriginal assertion
Record text

On WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances, an unauthenticated user can execute arbitrary code, aka FBX-22786. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U2, 12.x before 12.1.3_U8, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.9_U2.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
On WatchGuard Firebox and XTM appliances, an unauthenticated user can execute arbitrary code, aka FBX-22786. This vulnerability impacts Fireware OS before 12.7.2_U2, 12.x before 12.1.3_U8, and 12.2.x through 12.5.x before 12.5.9_U2.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Appliances Arbitrary Code Execution

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
WatchGuard Firebox and XTM Appliances Arbitrary Code Execution
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

78.16% probability · 99.54th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.781570000000; percentile 0.995410000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
13Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
13Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

mitre · source assertedn/an/aDirect source scope
Affected: n/a
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "n/a"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMwatchguardfirewareVulnerable target · 13 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 12.0.0, < 12.1.3); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 12.5, < 12.5.9); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 12.7.0, < 12.7.2); Version 12.1.3; Version 12.5.9; Version 12.7.2Canonical identity product-b3c858dbbd7d31323f3fab0b9d99180b38a4cf1792b04620ba1da977488196d6Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 12.5; through excluding 12.5.9
    Match ID
    d06d8ff3-9e5c-4a23-9aaa-250cc8831c91
  2. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u5:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    b310fa82-61c6-4d40-a263-789223301513
  3. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.5.9:u1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 11
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    3b345b31-2dc2-49c5-8ac1-a4b12a5b679b
  4. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 12.7.0; through excluding 12.7.2
    Match ID
    d684df8b-6f0b-4189-b7b5-79a09abce0f0
  5. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u3:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    ae1bb0f7-72f1-4601-a1e2-161fca8819b8
  6. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    eb0676ca-e9bf-4cb8-99d2-7fa0acc711ea
  7. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u4:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    583e164a-e308-4666-84af-e0adc16427b4
  8. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u7:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 10
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    5e842bf2-3c47-4c9b-8ba1-b448a2835e0a
  9. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.7.2:u1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 12
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    cf8ece0c-9997-42eb-a983-b930ea4d10e4
  10. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    ce6c1cd9-b765-4a46-953f-bcc9a4537db6
  11. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    48106213-c927-4232-a95f-4e6962e72bf9
  12. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 12.0.0; through excluding 12.1.3
    Match ID
    e7c2e450-c7dc-40f4-928c-2323428e4df4
  13. cpe:2.3:o:watchguard:fireware:12.1.3:u6:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    49901be7-00ea-4180-bc45-cbbfec295a31

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-0afe2030e12385af1223ee9a2cbc34de083ebd57f9dbabf60db236b619aedc57 · product-b3c858dbbd7d31323f3fab0b9d99180b38a4cf1792b04620ba1da977488196d6

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
13
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
241d5e41-cdab-499d-a605-cd912161d8c13f17d197-2071-46ca-9394-2e49b86acee443965574-419d-4830-a1a2-30517c7028ad47dd37fe-8cbf-4c3f-8450-005aa01af5b6609863ac-8fee-447a-9d52-a3989e4971216f8a66a2-38fa-4b17-b889-6b329fedff97824e9e42-2043-43e2-bb51-ebd70c4e7170b1298dd4-ab6e-4e52-abcc-2279021b84f0b76bd126-3d68-4618-998f-f66139e07ffcc91bd48d-1a2d-4afc-8552-746f8862108ecd1a215d-e537-4e3d-8f2f-729997a8e05dcf701875-3dbf-4366-b328-9d17e18d901ee97e5d5d-3aeb-4002-8098-5bcb34bca19f
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
34ee3fed-6ab4-4b03-a454-f321facd419e

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.5
NVDCVSS 2.0 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchAV:N/AC:L/Au:N/C:P/I:P/A:P
9.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.