CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2023-21715

Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Feb 14, 2023). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 7.3. EPSS estimates 12.0% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

67.8–69.4Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Feb 14, 2023
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
92%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Office Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Office Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 12.01% probability · 95.82th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.120110000000; percentile 0.958200000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Feb 14, 2023 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood12.01%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 95.8th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.3

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Office Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Office Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

12.01% probability · 95.82th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.120110000000; percentile 0.958200000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
1Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
1Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftMicrosoft 365 Apps for EnterpriseDirect source scope
Affected: 16.0.1 to before https://aka.ms/OfficeSecurityReleases (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "16.0.1", "lessThan": "https://aka.ms/OfficeSecurityReleases", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONmicrosoft365_appsVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-14a59f3c1c4fc4cec4da9e1d602ac339da114e67c884352e121c41fb03b7a712Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:365_apps:-:*:*:*:enterprise:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    40c15edd-98d4-4d06-ba06-21ae0f33c72d

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-14a59f3c1c4fc4cec4da9e1d602ac339da114e67c884352e121c41fb03b7a712

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
f10202e7-c8d7-457e-b630-47e425ab9afe
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
cd65ba08-5a2b-474a-9df4-a74cd16ae532

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.3
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.3
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.3
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.3Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.3
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.