CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2023-22515

Atlassian has been made aware of an issue reported by a handful of customers where external attackers may have exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in publicly…

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Oct 5, 2023). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 99.2% exploit likelihood as of Aug 6, 2026.

87.9–90.2Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Atlassian has been made aware of an issue reported by a handful of customers where external attackers may have exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in publicly accessible Confluence Data Center and Server instances to create unauthorized Confluence administrator accounts and access Confluence instances. Atlassian Cloud sites are not affected by this vulnerability. If your Confluence site is accessed via an atlassian.net domain, it is hosted by Atlassian and is not vulnerable to this issue.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Oct 4, 2023
Updated
Mar 25, 2026
Evidence coverage
96%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    atlassian

    Record text: Atlassian has been made aware of an issue reported by a handful of customers where external attackers may have exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in publicly accessible Confluence Data Center and Server instances to create unauthorized Confluence administrator accounts and access Confluence instances. Atlassian Cloud sites are not affected by this vulnerability. If your Confluence site is accessed via an atlassian.net domain, it is hosted by Atlassian and is not vulnerable to this issue.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Atlassian has been made aware of an issue reported by a handful of customers where external attackers may have exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in publicly accessible Confluence Data Center and Server instances to create unauthorized Confluence administrator accounts and access Confluence instances. Atlassian Cloud sites are not affected by this vulnerability. If your Confluence site is accessed via an atlassian.net domain, it is hosted by Atlassian and is not vulnerable to this issue.
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Atlassian Confluence Data Center and Server Broken Access Control Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Atlassian Confluence Data Center and Server Broken Access Control Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 99.16% probability · 99.93th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.991560000000; percentile 0.999290000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Oct 5, 2023 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood99.16%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 6, 2026 · 99.9th percentile · first observed Aug 6, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

atlassianOriginal assertion
Record text

Atlassian has been made aware of an issue reported by a handful of customers where external attackers may have exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in publicly accessible Confluence Data Center and Server instances to create unauthorized Confluence administrator accounts and access Confluence instances. Atlassian Cloud sites are not affected by this vulnerability. If your Confluence site is accessed via an atlassian.net domain, it is hosted by Atlassian and is not vulnerable to this issue.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Atlassian has been made aware of an issue reported by a handful of customers where external attackers may have exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in publicly accessible Confluence Data Center and Server instances to create unauthorized Confluence administrator accounts and access Confluence instances. Atlassian Cloud sites are not affected by this vulnerability. If your Confluence site is accessed via an atlassian.net domain, it is hosted by Atlassian and is not vulnerable to this issue.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Atlassian Confluence Data Center and Server Broken Access Control Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Atlassian Confluence Data Center and Server Broken Access Control Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

99.16% probability · 99.93th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.991560000000; percentile 0.999290000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
6Underlying assertions
2Canonical products
6Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

4 scope groups

atlassian · source assertedAtlassianConfluence Data CenterDirect source scope
Unaffected: < 8.0.0Affected: >= 8.0.0Affected: >= 8.0.1Affected: >= 8.0.2Affected: >= 8.0.3Affected: >= 8.1.3Affected: >= 8.1.4Affected: >= 8.2.0Affected: >= 8.2.1Affected: >= 8.2.2Affected: >= 8.2.3Affected: >= 8.3.0Affected: >= 8.3.1Affected: >= 8.3.2Affected: >= 8.4.0Affected: >= 8.4.1Affected: >= 8.4.2Affected: >= 8.5.0Affected: >= 8.5.1Unaffected: >= 8.3.3Unaffected: >= 8.4.3Unaffected: >= 8.5.2
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "unaffected", "version": "< 8.0.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.3"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.1.3"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.1.4"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.3"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.3.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.3.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.3.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.4.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.4.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.4.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.5.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.5.1"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": ">= 8.3.3"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": ">= 8.4.3"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": ">= 8.5.2"}]
atlassian · source assertedAtlassianConfluence ServerDirect source scope
Unaffected: < 8.0.0Affected: >= 8.0.0Affected: >= 8.0.1Affected: >= 8.0.2Affected: >= 8.0.3Affected: >= 8.1.3Affected: >= 8.1.4Affected: >= 8.2.0Affected: >= 8.2.1Affected: >= 8.2.2Affected: >= 8.2.3Affected: >= 8.3.0Affected: >= 8.3.1Affected: >= 8.3.2Affected: >= 8.4.0Affected: >= 8.4.1Affected: >= 8.4.2Affected: >= 8.5.0Affected: >= 8.5.1Unaffected: >= 8.3.3Unaffected: >= 8.4.3Unaffected: >= 8.5.2
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "unaffected", "version": "< 8.0.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.0.3"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.1.3"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.1.4"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.2.3"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.3.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.3.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.3.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.4.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.4.1"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.4.2"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.5.0"}, {"status": "affected", "version": ">= 8.5.1"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": ">= 8.3.3"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": ">= 8.4.3"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": ">= 8.5.2"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONatlassianconfluence_data_centerVulnerable target · 3 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 8.0.0, < 8.3.3); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 8.4.0, < 8.4.3); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 8.5.0, < 8.5.2)Canonical identity product-46ffcc1c487e05351f85b32368995272472629a66f00f7c366711e9ad6b50a1eLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:atlassian:confluence_data_center:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 8.4.0; through excluding 8.4.3
    Match ID
    38f9918d-6848-4cd6-8096-4fb48c23818b
  2. cpe:2.3:a:atlassian:confluence_data_center:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 8.5.0; through excluding 8.5.2
    Match ID
    8d646bcf-214f-449d-aeeb-b253e8715394
  3. cpe:2.3:a:atlassian:confluence_data_center:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 8.0.0; through excluding 8.3.3
    Match ID
    85b2ad9f-cba6-4559-9ae3-5f76a9ec3b7f
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONatlassianconfluence_serverVulnerable target · 3 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 8.0.0, < 8.3.3); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 8.4.0, < 8.4.3); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 8.5.0, < 8.5.2)Canonical identity product-d78d3c5ab9c4bc766839e98def83496ad4b2f4f37b30094660d7525704ae86c2Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:atlassian:confluence_server:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 8.0.0; through excluding 8.3.3
    Match ID
    970a3da7-5114-4696-a93d-c3d5aff5c6c5
  2. cpe:2.3:a:atlassian:confluence_server:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 8.4.0; through excluding 8.4.3
    Match ID
    a2eb19cd-ae29-4775-91c5-05b01a96ac6c
  3. cpe:2.3:a:atlassian:confluence_server:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 8.5.0; through excluding 8.5.2
    Match ID
    79229be7-0aa0-4308-8bb2-8fb11e8b9ad7

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

2 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-2c6716ad07a7f126f6c3b10254124705a45f0fa6586f2803bb482afd1584ee5f · product-46ffcc1c487e05351f85b32368995272472629a66f00f7c366711e9ad6b50a1e

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
3
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
2312beb6-d2a4-497a-afe2-0314a8a26684873eb510-a09c-40b6-9de3-32f7a5053321d50bfd1e-d722-4738-95dd-db175b6af378
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-2c6716ad07a7f126f6c3b10254124705a45f0fa6586f2803bb482afd1584ee5f · product-d78d3c5ab9c4bc766839e98def83496ad4b2f4f37b30094660d7525704ae86c2

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
3
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
292cb7bc-2666-4ff1-a8ec-b75c4fb77995383e22ad-e34e-4107-a056-de23ae3cba2f9f018318-1d41-405c-b236-12c579295396
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
1b02c30b-252b-4e7f-8fdc-fc7fb6e98c2eaa5ab872-3bec-4291-ad50-7824303b28b5

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
10.0
security@atlassian.comCVSS 3.0 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.0/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H
10.0
atlassianCVSS 3.0 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.0/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

10.0Priority eligible

atlassian

CVSS 3.0 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.0/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
10.0
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.