CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2023-29336

Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since May 9, 2023). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 40.9% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

77.3–83.1Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
May 9, 2023
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
90%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Win32K Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Win32K Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 40.92% probability · 98.55th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.409190000000; percentile 0.985510000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date May 9, 2023 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood40.92%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 98.6th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Win32k Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Win32K Privilege Escalation Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Win32K Privilege Escalation Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

40.92% probability · 98.55th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.409190000000; percentile 0.985510000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
7Underlying assertions
5Canonical products
7Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

18 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1507Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.10240.0 to before 10.0.10240.19926 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.10240.0", "lessThan": "10.0.10240.19926", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1607Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.5921 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.5921", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.26519 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.26519", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.26519 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.26519", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.22070 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.22070", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.22070 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.22070", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.22070 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.22070", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.24266 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.24266", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.20969 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.20969", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.20969 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.20969", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.24266 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.24266", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.5921 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.5921", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.5921 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.5921", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1507Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.10240.19926)Canonical identity product-9851bd571b8ab08bca589cd73710badfef557d036f0fb7707f694f1c9f597cb4Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1507:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.10240.19926
    Match ID
    0855c3a7-36c3-4398-9208-1fc8a02f40d0
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1607Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.14393.5921)Canonical identity product-740fec3e9838b5eabe76ebe27e4d0d7a4cb2e0ef7e13923300d3d0b51e3fce1cLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1607:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.14393.5921
    Match ID
    bab00f09-4ccf-4ab6-85ce-07298a21c1d9
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2008Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    5f422a8c-2c4e-42c8-b420-e0728037e15c
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:r2:sp1:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    2aca9287-b475-4af7-a4da-a7143cef9e57
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2012Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-5a80416e92fed0cddbb3d4f3840218b448dee11159824ad25a0353da566963feLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2012:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a7df96f8-ba6a-4780-9ca3-f719b3f81074
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2012:r2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    db18c4ce-5917-401e-acf7-2747084fd36e
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2016Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-02e254d111ce604757a15650ef469f4f8365d6247da82ce3ac2695c3cfc7dc5fLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2016:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    041ff8ba-0b12-4a1f-b4bf-9c4f33b7c1e7

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

5 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-02e254d111ce604757a15650ef469f4f8365d6247da82ce3ac2695c3cfc7dc5f

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
94a2f803-9573-42e0-abc6-529ccde557f4
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87a

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
21040b74-c680-4851-ae0c-56cb97430caba0db5067-b84c-46cb-a343-19b96a68a3b7
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-5a80416e92fed0cddbb3d4f3840218b448dee11159824ad25a0353da566963fe

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
3015e716-d5b5-46c7-91f5-742491cd0afea0e18f71-8fea-4f6e-a904-48b38d6075af
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-740fec3e9838b5eabe76ebe27e4d0d7a4cb2e0ef7e13923300d3d0b51e3fce1c

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
ff9d0430-250e-4980-9421-737c7ec61a72
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-9851bd571b8ab08bca589cd73710badfef557d036f0fb7707f694f1c9f597cb4

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
7521720f-48c5-45ce-87ed-c50a198e6322
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
13
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
1543eb63-b3ba-4083-bb32-275c23e8d035492fb8b0-60cd-45c9-86e5-d5408980c39252dc6d93-3620-47f0-924d-2c972de907bd556b9ab6-d71b-4cd9-8653-5232289309e56e654d85-d454-461d-9510-981ba1f2087b9d4278c1-343f-45ad-a5bd-6a8ca3cba05ea06732ab-7876-411d-bf70-bd852ca3e377d06b978b-7e29-4de5-af85-bc3156fe54b9d7d77784-44c2-4502-ab07-2aa449cf4e32dace73fd-746e-4126-bace-5d7a4135a7c1ee6ef05c-5871-40cd-953b-0f2da0851950f0615d55-7fe0-438e-a27b-419b8112940df5710e77-35e3-4c66-a15a-752b7424b42a

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.8
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.