CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2024-21338

Windows Kernel Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Mar 4, 2024). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 59.8% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

75.0–86.7Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

Windows Kernel Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Feb 13, 2024
Updated
Aug 10, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Windows Kernel Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Windows Kernel Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows Kernel Exposed IOCTL with Insufficient Access Control Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Windows Kernel Exposed IOCTL with Insufficient Access Control Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 59.81% probability · 99.13th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.598100000000; percentile 0.991310000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Mar 4, 2024 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood59.81%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 99.1th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Aug 10, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Windows Kernel Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Windows Kernel Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Windows Kernel Exposed IOCTL with Insufficient Access Control Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Windows Kernel Exposed IOCTL with Insufficient Access Control Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

59.81% probability · 99.13th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.598100000000; percentile 0.991310000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
9Underlying assertions
9Canonical products
9Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

21 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.5458 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.5458", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.17763.5458 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.5458", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 21H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.19043.0 to before 10.0.19044.4046 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.19043.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19044.4046", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 22H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.19045.0 to before 10.0.19045.4046 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.19045.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19045.4046", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 version 21H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.22000.2777 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22000.2777", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 version 22H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.22621.0 to before 10.0.22621.3155 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22621.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22621.3155", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 version 22H3Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.22631.0 to before 10.0.22631.3155 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22631.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22631.3155", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 Version 23H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.22631.0 to before 10.0.22631.3155 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22631.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22631.3155", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.5458 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.5458", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.5458 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.5458", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2022Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.20348.0 to before 10.0.20348.2322 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.20348.0", "lessThan": "10.0.20348.2322", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2022, 23H2 Edition (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.25398.0 to before 10.0.25398.709 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.25398.0", "lessThan": "10.0.25398.709", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1809Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.17763.5458)Canonical identity product-a3084138383423221f61594e86f5b295e5e254acd7ae5284f45e0877a084db43Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.17763.5458
    Match ID
    a1689dfd-d52d-4121-bfd7-dbf2be4e7de8
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_21h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19044.4046)Canonical identity product-ec10c9f400f23fdf118887f60fe116ffde4adb76dcf118cdd3a7556fd033da3bLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_21h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19044.4046
    Match ID
    c78776cc-3a9c-41a3-8beb-d71d92f6579d
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_22h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.19045.4046)Canonical identity product-a6295b9daad3ca57ce70751badba5b7fe99229c8a562cc7400e8cfef3daccaeeLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_22h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.19045.4046
    Match ID
    806ca6d2-42b2-4244-a5ed-d23e6dd56772
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_11_21h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.22000.2777)Canonical identity product-7fe28b5b5b17e017d9554204df059dd619746ffb5c80da87bcbfb1c52720d2f4Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_11_21h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.22000.2777
    Match ID
    3f7f8173-9e59-48e4-98c9-4beb6ae79451
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_11_22h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.22621.3155)Canonical identity product-f8c509b6ec25f2a4338a23556be321da5a7c3e8da9f1a4c52f7f15dd0e9a0d2aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_11_22h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.22621.3155
    Match ID
    84edbe52-efe0-4d6d-aa76-698b6f9687d1
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_11_23h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.22631.3155)Canonical identity product-026201767813843a6d53867bacde4a55c3035cb868c0a72434012c5e30dab148Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_11_23h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.22631.3155
    Match ID
    900d1da2-6da7-4681-966a-b9973b1329ea
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2019Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.17763.5458)Canonical identity product-25a2932c0bbcb648f7e391c8b9d34c734e5085444c03c1c206b9d4c4baa80b25Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2019:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.17763.5458
    Match ID
    a9098f92-79e7-4762-a37c-99b4cfa8cdd1
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2022Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.20348.2322)Canonical identity product-d196d31962e613955a91e33e795c22dcfa7bf25173abebaca616a6350cce9ce1Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2022:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.20348.2322
    Match ID
    5c8f0436-3afe-48bd-ae92-8f8392dd0a1d
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2022_23h2Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (<= 10.0.25398.709)Canonical identity product-bc66b50eed682b3633d0f3a2914725d0a72d6d0d5fece14f566d91bc87448c0bLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2022_23h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through including 10.0.25398.709
    Match ID
    62322dcd-fdd1-4e54-a51a-08d68890e7de

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
12
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
05085504-5982-45c5-a473-f8e012ac65e525274726-ac15-4f8d-83de-3277c9dd9b01784a33ec-b149-4efc-8b52-9ca908d6cc057c9d00ac-4f77-4117-b302-7579fad321d28387d83b-87ab-4fe2-8b40-77dd9f762c738d866f0d-47de-414a-8b67-f236d23490ff9808db67-a12d-40bc-b09b-36451da6b6a9a72ada7a-c440-4cbd-a1df-2e6fd30f39afae801bfb-62e5-41cc-b3b3-42dec24500cec2122966-20b8-4d9c-a742-6f18b84fe5abdb2eacdd-43db-4c06-9cc0-f4e03621e5a1e676d508-b1f2-4d14-b91f-4d691b778741
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
9
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
403cfee0-a555-42cb-95df-edd3afc9d1517ee64909-5c53-467b-8381-b6c71ec3235d7f969a75-128b-460b-9cc9-a39af5bac180c1740fbd-1df7-4a88-878e-0702b470da72caf3e40a-f01e-4b52-b1f1-1811da5b0631d7bc74e3-8507-4ce0-80b2-cac60f0f5a39e5c1ab25-84bd-4089-8804-a51149d45679f087c697-cced-475c-9da9-ffe5da1e96b4fddf8cad-879c-4609-9376-49b573c6bcdc

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.8
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.