CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2024-38014

Windows Installer Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Sep 10, 2024). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 6.3% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

64.5–77.8Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

Windows Installer Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Sep 10, 2024
Updated
Aug 10, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Windows Installer Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Windows Installer Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows Installer Improper Privilege Management Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Windows Installer Improper Privilege Management Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 6.26% probability · 93.55th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.062630000000; percentile 0.935490000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Sep 10, 2024 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood6.26%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 93.5th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Aug 10, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Windows Installer Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Windows Installer Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Windows Installer Improper Privilege Management Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Windows Installer Improper Privilege Management Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

6.26% probability · 93.55th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.062630000000; percentile 0.935490000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
20Underlying assertions
15Canonical products
20Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

40 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1507Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.10240.0 to before 10.0.10240.20766 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.10240.0", "lessThan": "10.0.10240.20766", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1607Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.7336 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.7336", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1809Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.6293 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.6293", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 21H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.19043.0 to before 10.0.19044.4894 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.19043.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19044.4894", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 22H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.19045.0 to before 10.0.19045.4894 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.19045.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19045.4894", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 version 21H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.0 to before 10.0.22000.3197 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22000.3197", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 version 22H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.22621.0 to before 10.0.22621.4169 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22621.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22621.4169", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 version 22H3Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.22631.0 to before 10.0.22631.4169 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22631.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22631.4169", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 Version 23H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.22631.0 to before 10.0.22631.4169 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22631.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22631.4169", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 11 Version 24H2Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.26100.0 to before 10.0.26100.1742 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.26100.0", "lessThan": "10.0.26100.1742", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.27320 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.27320", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.27320 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.27320", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.22870 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.22870", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.22870 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.22870", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.22870 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.22870", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.25073 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.25073", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.22175 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.22175", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.22175 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.22175", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.25073 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.25073", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.7336 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.7336", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.7336 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.7336", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.6293 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.6293", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2019 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.17763.0 to before 10.0.17763.6293 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.6293", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2022Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.20348.0 to before 10.0.20348.2700 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.20348.0", "lessThan": "10.0.20348.2700", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2022, 23H2 Edition (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.25398.0 to before 10.0.25398.1128 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.25398.0", "lessThan": "10.0.25398.1128", "versionType": "custom"}]

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
25
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
01cdd580-7d11-45d3-b3f0-51f0554bfae80376563e-9348-45f1-ba64-cc4ea11fd58304e2e9b4-a0f9-43ff-b021-e8f84220d5931a36926e-ed59-49eb-b4bd-943b2163e2e621dc076f-a4a8-4fa0-9f43-d288e5f21158287c9ad3-4926-4b26-864e-efdc315e9b473a844c5e-7654-4128-8fe7-ae99b5cfd4b7404a0478-d56f-4ac0-a39a-ba2255c0394a463fbf18-8710-431f-bbef-e85ef438f23b4bf50062-3045-4856-9d65-ec73922c83965e590ce7-a3db-4d9f-95c9-ced29ddcdc2466c6da3d-1480-42e3-80a5-90bcbbd3209f7051a56b-dcb0-40e0-8476-1a381e6cc91a7cf32229-ef99-40eb-9bf4-60a48df29a317e01346b-90a2-4b56-b787-c2931d0f1fc8817638da-a8aa-4545-bda7-36da03cda6c18aba17da-9609-425a-9878-cdca447ea81d9658c154-fe1e-41aa-bc7c-e0cc433d64119971fa7c-0dba-43c4-aef3-19c56d5aa9d2a0afe7fa-48d7-436a-b383-62fa6e3ed7b7a4b93d63-e4c0-4883-a8ba-10483eee8d42ab796463-8e5f-46d3-9946-1e3bb8ecd791ac12351a-31cb-4702-ae76-68f82d7562bff84ded29-0920-4563-b46e-e0f8b6cdd25efc3db605-3a7e-4fd3-8bc1-b7b61e5ae93a
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
20
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
0b0f0cc1-3c3a-43d0-82e6-c25f62cc3de00d2b42af-a459-475e-a762-9e08f2b58dd21c087dc1-9ea8-424f-8866-e472a2efb6eb37326049-8150-4235-af30-a976ad7cdd307521ba0a-b415-46d1-9d95-73aa648e2e8080acee81-5fc6-4218-bc52-3a57249ff4a7931c97b3-c39e-4b6c-abb1-8f0490f1667a9d0edf7e-1a21-4273-90a3-1c5d420124cda5b4d36c-231f-4f8d-b594-1bd28a70ebc1a6d128a7-8aa7-4022-9dc2-e7265ab9b0b2b2270fe4-d5cc-4394-af6a-ff11b55fcc16b764e142-a171-44dc-a171-c1dc2733d674cf28f981-34c8-49d4-a7af-5e58941ce7b7d9a0b736-59ca-45d2-be53-058bd54f2347dd2984b3-8e3d-4dfa-86aa-f256c1e89b2dde3def1f-ca00-483d-872d-ee01e6994d01e4d55cd3-8ee0-4357-a632-ac15c6d1778becc5fd3a-8a88-4c1c-b78a-d84eb172f15ef9e1cfb2-9b4d-491e-bddc-f4da99552919fb518b35-f1f2-4934-ab62-38a45ccb4e10

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.8
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.