CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2024-38226

Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Sep 10, 2024). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 7.3. EPSS estimates 2.7% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

65.7–68.4Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Sep 10, 2024
Updated
Oct 21, 2025
Evidence coverage
95%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Publisher Protection Mechanism Failure Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Publisher Protection Mechanism Failure Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 2.67% probability · 84.63th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.026670000000; percentile 0.846330000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Sep 10, 2024 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood2.67%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 84.6th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.3

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Microsoft Publisher Security Feature Bypass Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Publisher Protection Mechanism Failure Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Publisher Protection Mechanism Failure Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

2.67% probability · 84.63th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.026670000000; percentile 0.846330000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
6Underlying assertions
3Canonical products
6Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

6 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftMicrosoft Office 2019Direct source scope
Affected: 19.0.0 to before https://aka.ms/OfficeSecurityReleases (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "19.0.0", "lessThan": "https://aka.ms/OfficeSecurityReleases", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftMicrosoft Office LTSC 2021Direct source scope
Affected: 16.0.1 to before https://aka.ms/OfficeSecurityReleases (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "16.0.1", "lessThan": "https://aka.ms/OfficeSecurityReleases", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftMicrosoft Publisher 2016Direct source scope
Affected: 16.0.0 to before 16.0.5465.1001 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "16.0.0", "lessThan": "16.0.5465.1001", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONmicrosoftoffice_2019Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-07fe6e8e7d1088248ce0f8f21edcbcad6b1c631bd4181f4000be16067f3175feLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:office_2019:-:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    14d63e3f-a431-4dd8-979f-811e8dac423d
  2. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:office_2019:-:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    241cde2b-abd0-4eff-8d73-1766e32fa20f
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONmicrosoftoffice_long_term_servicing_channelVulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version 2021Canonical identity product-911e466d0be7cb2953297756c47cb44a2f472c517f89b133f4ff5b03a0ab5264Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:office_long_term_servicing_channel:2021:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    ba9bcd55-f71e-4920-b906-a1386843776a
  2. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:office_long_term_servicing_channel:2021:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    75f7306b-d1da-48c2-af87-4480e161d794
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONmicrosoftpublisherVulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version 2016Canonical identity product-a2f6d163b6f7cfae74c162d96e1e0e5a739e3c02595f036ab14f33eb6e6a44d6Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:publisher:2016:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    cb45982e-03c9-404b-bd22-2d096e561802
  2. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:publisher:2016:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    03d5f104-880a-4faf-938a-78dce55aad98

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

3 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-07fe6e8e7d1088248ce0f8f21edcbcad6b1c631bd4181f4000be16067f3175fe

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
45c3090c-149c-43f2-ac50-854db101bc95c82a5fae-14db-42f7-88b9-3cc1ad4c73e2
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-911e466d0be7cb2953297756c47cb44a2f472c517f89b133f4ff5b03a0ab5264

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
427aa69a-5809-4e45-a814-40cfab1fb2f795324044-1521-40fc-83ad-16bead2f2cfd
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-a2f6d163b6f7cfae74c162d96e1e0e5a739e3c02595f036ab14f33eb6e6a44d6

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
2f3b3ff2-7c08-4352-bb68-4486698f426abcde8a25-2337-45c8-a7d5-0d58aaef127b
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
3
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
8cfb187f-90d3-4908-b0a3-c3fb62e7e42ba413d212-f245-4034-8989-b2ff53713187d1a62bbe-315e-417a-ab68-6bb891f2320a

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.3
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.3
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.3Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.3
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.