CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2024-43468

Microsoft Configuration Manager Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Feb 12, 2026). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 82.1% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

86.8–87.9Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Microsoft Configuration Manager Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Oct 8, 2024
Updated
Jun 9, 2026
Evidence coverage
96%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Microsoft Configuration Manager Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Microsoft Configuration Manager Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Configuration Manager SQL Injection Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Configuration Manager SQL Injection Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 82.15% probability · 99.63th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.821480000000; percentile 0.996300000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Feb 12, 2026 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood82.15%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 99.6th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Microsoft Configuration Manager Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Microsoft Configuration Manager Remote Code Execution Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Configuration Manager SQL Injection Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Configuration Manager SQL Injection Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

82.15% probability · 99.63th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.821480000000; percentile 0.996300000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
3Underlying assertions
3Canonical products
3Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

4 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftMicrosoft Configuration ManagerDirect source scope
Affected: 1.0.0 to before 5.00.9106 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "1.0.0", "lessThan": "5.00.9106", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONmicrosoftconfiguration_manager_2403Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-db7666b2fbdb85ac341fdcaac47e32956ed8bca36070054abaf6c3cb727836c0Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:configuration_manager_2403:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    aa84b441-edc4-4871-ab6d-cdd3c638f5d0
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONmicrosoftconfiguration_manager_2409Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-c177c19c546dd7a4ceb75deee6ad1d3e9b7c34e00887429f2b773436a97e1089Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:configuration_manager_2409:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    3832f552-1de3-49a3-8b2b-c75c0d404279
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONmicrosoftconfiguration_manager_2503Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-b5f0ed1108bb616a0c4859ea53132a6be90c0a4279ca670425ec216b07b994fcLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:microsoft:configuration_manager_2503:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    f476484b-c570-4389-a9d1-b6ae2b1c11f9

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

3 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-b5f0ed1108bb616a0c4859ea53132a6be90c0a4279ca670425ec216b07b994fc

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
b8c05bd0-20a3-451e-9fd8-2c7f580c93af
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-c177c19c546dd7a4ceb75deee6ad1d3e9b7c34e00887429f2b773436a97e1089

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
69846703-05b0-468a-b4d9-2e27deb03eac
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-db7666b2fbdb85ac341fdcaac47e32956ed8bca36070054abaf6c3cb727836c0

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
a6b1f965-bd03-41d3-880e-8713cf4e38e9
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
fe5295e6-c58d-43a0-9615-d20e0f33da31

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.8
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.8Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.