CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2025-24983

Windows Win32 Kernel Subsystem Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Mar 11, 2025). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 7.0. EPSS estimates 1.3% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

64.8–70.4Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

Use after free in Windows Win32 Kernel Subsystem allows an authorized attacker to elevate privileges locally.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Mar 11, 2025
Updated
Feb 26, 2026
Evidence coverage
91%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    microsoft

    Record text: Windows Win32 Kernel Subsystem Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Windows Win32 Kernel Subsystem Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows Win32k Use-After-Free Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Microsoft Windows Win32k Use-After-Free Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 1.35% probability · 69.42th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.013480000000; percentile 0.694150000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Mar 11, 2025 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood1.35%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 69.4th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.0

microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
microsoftOriginal assertion
Record text

Windows Win32 Kernel Subsystem Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Windows Win32 Kernel Subsystem Elevation of Privilege Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Microsoft Windows Win32k Use-After-Free Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Microsoft Windows Win32k Use-After-Free Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

1.35% probability · 69.42th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.013480000000; percentile 0.694150000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
10Underlying assertions
5Canonical products
10Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

17 scope groups

microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1507Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.10240.0 to before 10.0.10240.20947 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.10240.0", "lessThan": "10.0.10240.20947", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows 10 Version 1607Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.7876 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.7876", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.27618 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.27618", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 R2 Service Pack 1 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.1.7601.0 to before 6.1.7601.27618 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.1.7601.0", "lessThan": "6.1.7601.27618", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.23168 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.23168", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2008 Service Pack 2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.0.6003.0 to before 6.0.6003.23168 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.0.6003.0", "lessThan": "6.0.6003.23168", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.25368 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.25368", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.22470 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.22470", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 R2 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.3.9600.0 to before 6.3.9600.22470 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.22470", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2012 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 6.2.9200.0 to before 6.2.9200.25368 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.25368", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.7876 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.7876", "versionType": "custom"}]
microsoft · source assertedMicrosoftWindows Server 2016 (Server Core installation)Direct source scope
Affected: 10.0.14393.0 to before 10.0.14393.7876 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.7876", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1507Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.10240.20947)Canonical identity product-9851bd571b8ab08bca589cd73710badfef557d036f0fb7707f694f1c9f597cb4Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1507:*:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.10240.20947
    Match ID
    3cbcf6d9-5085-473c-82f5-98bc246a9c4c
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1507:*:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.10240.20947
    Match ID
    6997de6e-cbad-4690-a68c-8f10e477dcc2
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_10_1607Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.14393.7876)Canonical identity product-740fec3e9838b5eabe76ebe27e4d0d7a4cb2e0ef7e13923300d3d0b51e3fce1cLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1607:*:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.14393.7876
    Match ID
    340ef5f8-d4f5-4ad8-9d80-1dec2f376be5
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1607:*:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.14393.7876
    Match ID
    0cf0e174-4692-4aa3-b72e-12e73a1bdbe5
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2008Vulnerable target · 3 assertions
Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    2127d10c-b6f3-4c1d-b9aa-5d78513cc996
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:r2:sp1:*:*:*:*:x64:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    af07a81d-12e5-4b1d-bff9-c8d08c32ff4f
  3. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2008:-:sp2:*:*:*:*:x86:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    ab425562-c0a0-452e-aabe-f70522f15e1a
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2012Vulnerable target · 2 assertions
Version not applicable; Version r2Canonical identity product-5a80416e92fed0cddbb3d4f3840218b448dee11159824ad25a0353da566963feLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2012:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 7
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a7df96f8-ba6a-4780-9ca3-f719b3f81074
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2012:r2:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 8
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    db18c4ce-5917-401e-acf7-2747084fd36e
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindows_server_2016Vulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 10.0.14393.7876)Canonical identity product-02e254d111ce604757a15650ef469f4f8365d6247da82ce3ac2695c3cfc7dc5fLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_server_2016:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 9
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 10.0.14393.7876
    Match ID
    c7610cdb-a02b-4c62-b17f-6dce2b3de4f0

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

5 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-02e254d111ce604757a15650ef469f4f8365d6247da82ce3ac2695c3cfc7dc5f

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
d80c52ee-c6c6-4c2e-a11f-7ca31e37dc39
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-217b1ab3d25f361a639824f86753d418b35aa2a816ee370bb71b5d1dd883d87a

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
3
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
3b6a5cc5-ad53-4580-85f1-81b54d2dc95c7cbd35b5-d272-448a-90f8-99bcdf7b9820b1f50d7c-9500-444e-b548-7f2bc1484b37
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-5a80416e92fed0cddbb3d4f3840218b448dee11159824ad25a0353da566963fe

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
38dc5c3e-5222-44ef-a9b7-8f399f7b479aac5934cf-6467-41b6-905e-76cabf94fb30
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-740fec3e9838b5eabe76ebe27e4d0d7a4cb2e0ef7e13923300d3d0b51e3fce1c

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
4341e2b9-e2b8-460e-b37b-4b9c37f17418fcb41d1e-89fe-49f7-99f2-62424a019a45
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-9851bd571b8ab08bca589cd73710badfef557d036f0fb7707f694f1c9f597cb4

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
3d968481-1450-4392-9400-9b7d0dcb1ec5a6046662-e0f5-4029-8de1-65508a86d8c9
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
12
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
11c0f081-75de-4163-a3b8-0630310533eb2049f3d3-cf9d-42c0-b21e-ea0cf59708122999475d-9269-4d2a-ab0a-b7c1df6bcada6f31fc9a-895a-4fcb-9d56-cfcd1d1aa2d07103ebc6-ea4c-4e92-9fe9-a488a26204167d03aa1b-5f0a-4414-964f-54a89230cbab804843d4-8cfb-4515-b30a-97823637b287a93009ba-1d31-4fd2-b0d0-4a1269ff3b4fa951fe1d-6cf1-42f0-8b8b-a90ea34f05f5bc2e3def-ad4c-45f9-a301-a46cfee4d273e3bad37b-5e14-4f0d-a4de-e679330baec4e51cab23-b026-4cc8-a1dd-85b22a6f1367

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.0
secure@microsoft.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.0
microsoftCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.0Priority eligible

microsoft

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:H/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H/E:F/RL:O/RC:C
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.0
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.