CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2025-31201

This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Apr 17, 2025). CVE Program source reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 14.7% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

77.2–80.1Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code. This issue is fixed in iOS 18.4.1 and iPadOS 18.4.1, macOS Sequoia 15.4.1, tvOS 18.4.1, visionOS 2.4.1. An attacker with arbitrary read and write capability may be able to bypass Pointer Authentication. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on iOS.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Apr 16, 2025
Updated
Apr 2, 2026
Evidence coverage
93%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    apple

    Record text: This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code. This issue is fixed in iOS 18.4.1 and iPadOS 18.4.1, macOS Sequoia 15.4.1, tvOS 18.4.1, visionOS 2.4.1. An attacker with arbitrary read and write capability may be able to bypass Pointer Authentication. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on iOS.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code. This issue is fixed in iOS 18.4.1 and iPadOS 18.4.1, macOS Sequoia 15.4.1, tvOS 18.4.1, visionOS 2.4.1. An attacker with arbitrary read and write capability may be able to bypass Pointer Authentication. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on iOS.
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Apple Multiple Products Arbitrary Read and Write Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Apple Multiple Products Arbitrary Read and Write Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 14.65% probability · 96.4th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.146520000000; percentile 0.963980000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Apr 17, 2025 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood14.65%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 96.4th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

CVE Program source · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

appleOriginal assertion
Record text

This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code. This issue is fixed in iOS 18.4.1 and iPadOS 18.4.1, macOS Sequoia 15.4.1, tvOS 18.4.1, visionOS 2.4.1. An attacker with arbitrary read and write capability may be able to bypass Pointer Authentication. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on iOS.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code. This issue is fixed in iOS 18.4.1 and iPadOS 18.4.1, macOS Sequoia 15.4.1, tvOS 18.4.1, visionOS 2.4.1. An attacker with arbitrary read and write capability may be able to bypass Pointer Authentication. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on iOS.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Apple Multiple Products Arbitrary Read and Write Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Apple Multiple Products Arbitrary Read and Write Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

14.65% probability · 96.4th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.146520000000; percentile 0.963980000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
5Underlying assertions
5Canonical products
5Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 5 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

9 scope groups

apple · source assertedAppleiOS and iPadOSDirect source scope
Affected: 0 to before 18.4.1 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "0", "lessThan": "18.4.1", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedApplemacOSDirect source scope
Affected: 0 to before 15.4.1 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "0", "lessThan": "15.4.1", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedAppletvOSDirect source scope
Affected: 0 to before 18.4.1 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "0", "lessThan": "18.4.1", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedApplevisionOSDirect source scope
Affected: 0 to before 2.4.1 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "0", "lessThan": "2.4.1", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMappleipadosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 18.4.1)Canonical identity product-8e7094ac066248cd4828b6ec8e3a96d010ed1c68f6083af46638775d737da0adLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:ipados:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    3 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 18.4.1
    Match ID
    f16ca380-bca8-4704-a2df-8defb6c74304
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMappleiphone_osVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 18.4.1)Canonical identity product-665d7155d02581979844685e7fca6c2680af997f9200af455887b1c71c483272Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:iphone_os:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    4 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 18.4.1
    Match ID
    f3509987-8bcc-4735-b3a0-cb8821f015c4
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMapplemacosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 15.0, < 15.4.1)Canonical identity product-d6f53ba981bb58ea2b0d24855b8ff4a18555e3a17a9dce0d38460a69537bbc63Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:macos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 15.0; through excluding 15.4.1
    Match ID
    df26261d-c727-4d9c-a012-e08db7e76f78
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMappletvosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 18.4.1)Canonical identity product-e5ea88731ef28ba75a5b40a72b650d8199d1f49ce8c4cd688de7cdb41dc8b9fbLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:tvos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    1 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 18.4.1
    Match ID
    a24dbfea-b927-44aa-82f3-c9a385b6f426
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMapplevisionosVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 2.4.1)Canonical identity product-19ea67d4e45cd0ba7b7dd3f37fc826621c69bf7424ebc0f3a2c1b0555b2cb8beLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:apple:visionos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    2 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 2.4.1
    Match ID
    925616d6-4cd8-4999-aba7-57810d148eef

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

5 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-19ea67d4e45cd0ba7b7dd3f37fc826621c69bf7424ebc0f3a2c1b0555b2cb8be

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
fb787110-1fba-4791-be20-c6d6081c413e
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-665d7155d02581979844685e7fca6c2680af997f9200af455887b1c71c483272

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
6c6255c8-ee1b-40c5-95a5-9f901807dfac
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-8e7094ac066248cd4828b6ec8e3a96d010ed1c68f6083af46638775d737da0ad

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
e20e5728-aa40-4cd1-8b12-3df981f3ae12
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-d6f53ba981bb58ea2b0d24855b8ff4a18555e3a17a9dce0d38460a69537bbc63

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
4082e0e8-f021-437b-ac16-6f51d936f404
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-d6ed6f1e35de2e16a8a10f2ae364dab009bb2afadd609071b20da24d60ce2829 · product-e5ea88731ef28ba75a5b40a72b650d8199d1f49ce8c4cd688de7cdb41dc8b9fb

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
60902c43-35de-40b8-8c42-7115a3f96a15
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
4
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
34ebb819-e829-4061-9a96-e03f12b2899259213ce0-816f-4eae-8e41-45284f8d1cd5c811cd2d-89f7-42a2-88a3-0fa5cd61ff1de01f8b93-c832-4303-a746-7495aa8c006a

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.