CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2025-40536

SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Feb 12, 2026). NVD reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. Severity assessments differ within at least one CVSS version. EPSS estimates 73.6% exploit likelihood as of Oct 21, 2026.

80.0–85.8Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

SolarWinds Web Help Desk was found to be susceptible to a security control bypass vulnerability that if exploited, could allow an unauthenticated attacker to gain access to certain restricted functionality.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Jan 28, 2026
Updated
Feb 26, 2026
Evidence coverage
80%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    SolarWinds

    Record text: SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 73.56% probability · 99.47th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.735620000000; percentile 0.994690000000
    Original evidence ↗

Assessments differ

NVD9.8CVSS 3.1 · source date omitted
psirt@solarwinds.com8.1CVSS 3.1 · source date omitted

Values are shown separately by source and CVSS version.

ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Feb 12, 2026 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood73.56%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 21, 2026 · 99.5th percentile · first observed Oct 21, 2026

SeverityAssessments differ

NVD · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · values shown separately below

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentAssessments differ

Eligible assertions materially conflict and remain visible side by side.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve conflict
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
SolarWindsOriginal assertion
Record text

SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
SolarWinds Web Help Desk Security Control Bypass Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

73.56% probability · 99.47th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.735620000000; percentile 0.994690000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
1Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
1Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

SolarWinds · source assertedSolarWindsWeb Help DeskDirect source scope
Affected: 12.8.8 HF1 and below
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "12.8.8 HF1 and below"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONsolarwindsweb_help_deskVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 2026.1)Canonical identity product-40829529b05cdb61ecbaa42e76f650c54c56e9caa25bf81b375909ef6d0ed843Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:solarwinds:web_help_desk:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 2026.1
    Match ID
    f7cadb33-214c-441a-bb62-64811ebbeb29

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-391e7faeab524390123e1ed5f782756e82c750d283ae0f54737c4a4dc9612f6d · product-40829529b05cdb61ecbaa42e76f650c54c56e9caa25bf81b375909ef6d0ed843

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
20c5cf7f-4f55-4643-9646-af5da5b7127f
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
48ef66ec-49e3-4ab0-b939-3fa5f01a968c

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.1
psirt@solarwinds.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:H/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.1
SolarWindsCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:H/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.1Priority eligible

SolarWinds

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:H/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.1
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.