CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2025-41244

VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools contain a local privilege escalation vulnerability.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Oct 30, 2025). vmware reports CVSS 3.1 7.8. EPSS estimates 8.1% exploit likelihood as of Aug 27, 2026.

71.8–74.7Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools contain a local privilege escalation vulnerability. A malicious local actor with non-administrative privileges having access to a VM with VMware Tools installed and managed by Aria Operations with SDMP enabled may exploit this vulnerability to escalate privileges to root on the same VM.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Sep 29, 2025
Updated
Feb 26, 2026
Evidence coverage
94%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    vmware

    Record text: VMSA-2025-0015: VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools updates address multiple vulnerabilities (CVE-2025-41244,CVE-2025-41245, CVE-2025-41246)

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    VMSA-2025-0015: VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools updates address multiple vulnerabilities (CVE-2025-41244,CVE-2025-41245, CVE-2025-41246)
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Broadcom VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools Privilege Defined with Unsafe Actions Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Broadcom VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools Privilege Defined with Unsafe Actions Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 8.14% probability · 94.42th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.081420000000; percentile 0.944180000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Oct 30, 2025 · first observed Jul 19, 2026

Exploit likelihood8.14%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 27, 2026 · 94.4th percentile · first observed Aug 27, 2026

SeverityCVSS 7.8

vmware · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
vmwareOriginal assertion
Record text

VMSA-2025-0015: VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools updates address multiple vulnerabilities (CVE-2025-41244,CVE-2025-41245, CVE-2025-41246)

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
VMSA-2025-0015: VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools updates address multiple vulnerabilities (CVE-2025-41244,CVE-2025-41245, CVE-2025-41246)
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Broadcom VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools Privilege Defined with Unsafe Actions Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Broadcom VMware Aria Operations and VMware Tools Privilege Defined with Unsafe Actions Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

8.14% probability · 94.42th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.081420000000; percentile 0.944180000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
12Underlying assertions
10Canonical products
10Target assertions
2Constraint assertions

Grouped from 4 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

16 scope groups

vmware · source assertedVMwareVCF operationsDirect source scope
Affected: 9.0.x to before 9.0.1.0 (commercial comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "9.0.x", "lessThan": "9.0.1.0", "versionType": "commercial"}]
vmware · source assertedVMwareVMware Aria OperationsDirect source scope
Affected: 8.18.x to before 8.18.5 (commercial comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "8.18.x", "lessThan": "8.18.5", "versionType": "commercial"}]
vmware · source assertedVMwareVMware Cloud FoundationDirect source scope
Affected: 5.x to before 8.18.5 (commercial comparison)Affected: 4.x to before 8.18.5 (commercial comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "5.x", "lessThan": "8.18.5", "versionType": "commercial"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "4.x", "lessThan": "8.18.5", "versionType": "commercial"}]
vmware · source assertedVMwareVMware Telco Cloud InfrastructureDirect source scope
Affected: 3.x to before 8.18.5 (commercial comparison)Affected: 2.x to before 8.18.5 (commercial comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "3.x", "lessThan": "8.18.5", "versionType": "commercial"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "2.x", "lessThan": "8.18.5", "versionType": "commercial"}]
vmware · source assertedVMwareVMware Telco Cloud PlatformDirect source scope
Affected: 5.x to before 8.18.5 (commercial comparison)Affected: 4.x to before 8.18.5 (commercial comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "5.x", "lessThan": "8.18.5", "versionType": "commercial"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "4.x", "lessThan": "8.18.5", "versionType": "commercial"}]
vmware · source assertedVMwareVMware toolsDirect source scope
Affected: 13.x.x.x to before 13.0.5.0 (commercial comparison)Affected: 12.5.x to before 12.5.4 (commercial comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "13.x.x.x", "lessThan": "13.0.5.0", "versionType": "commercial"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "12.5.x", "lessThan": "12.5.4", "versionType": "commercial"}]
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMdebiandebian_linuxVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version 11.0Canonical identity product-3ccb4bc87dfae98fa2f2a06435fe5b3d9be78572fb958a89f2d7a96b4066447eLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:debian:debian_linux:11.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    1 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    fa6feec2-9f11-4643-8827-749718254fed
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMlinuxlinux_kernelEnvironmental constraint · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-0eda7a801761be4590f267cf319481c8c0aaa30546d99cc064edf77989ce05c9Linked exact
Scope constrained
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:linux:linux_kernel:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Environmental constraint
    Configuration
    2 · node/1 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    703af700-7a70-47e2-bc3a-7fd03b3ca9c1
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindowsEnvironmental constraint · 1 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-6a798dc931affc038ba266631a506d54b455ffebd96b4fae68f77b6bd7aef178Linked exact
Scope constrained
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Environmental constraint
    Configuration
    2 · node/1 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a2572d17-1de6-457b-99cc-64afd54487ea
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONvmwarearia_operationsVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 8.0, < 8.18.5)Canonical identity product-c5680aa6ec012e79ce4bd619129ce16a8097dbfe33a2039ccba9cf7b7e53fe14Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:aria_operations:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 8.0; through excluding 8.18.5
    Match ID
    b78bddd1-de10-4839-9754-3a0d00f47986
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONvmwarecloud_foundationVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 4.0, <= 5.2.2)Canonical identity product-29d7e06677052d6292d0854ba656869395ea8e26a3dfe12b466a234813f9d5c3Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:cloud_foundation:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 4.0; through including 5.2.2
    Match ID
    d1b12c7e-0819-472e-8e79-477b47d603dd
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONvmwarecloud_foundation_operationsVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Version 9.0Canonical identity product-312bbab3c579a0a125f3080991c4654567884dd797be43d770e729ae29465327Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:cloud_foundation_operations:9.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    1a8c1a33-352a-4f7e-a284-f966f21eb0b3
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONvmwareopen_vm_toolsVulnerable target · 2 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 11.2.0, < 12.5.4); Version 13.0.0Canonical identity product-8144209f4e22309d453d422e589454aed6ec0ea75676c35d468c6d6d86806834Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:open_vm_tools:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 11.2.0; through excluding 12.5.4
    Match ID
    3a809ad4-bfba-4618-84a2-e638c13dc01f
  2. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:open_vm_tools:13.0.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    7f8b48de-44c4-4581-a52f-5631b0eb33e6
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONvmwaretelco_cloud_infrastructureVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 2.2, <= 3.0)Canonical identity product-d3deac29ab6bd35c48c3c775587f94cbece614f7e514c1ec2f6475a12c21ec81Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:telco_cloud_infrastructure:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 5
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 2.2; through including 3.0
    Match ID
    904aa81a-d1c3-4daf-bb2c-c51fedf5b3f6
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONvmwaretelco_cloud_platformVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 4.0, < 5.0.1)Canonical identity product-f33a9924ca675fab005c67daa6024da2d60a3504bfa15dcb96775f36535e19d7Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:telco_cloud_platform:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 6
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 4.0; through excluding 5.0.1
    Match ID
    a9c444f9-5647-451f-b239-252841e440c7
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONvmwaretoolsVulnerable target · 2 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (>= 12.5.0, < 12.5.4); Any version (unconstrained) (>= 13.0.0.0, < 13.0.5.0)Canonical identity product-9b1558c2e7e499d41e88709e3977af527434adc73075f6839975958d90ef6546Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:tools:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    2 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 13.0.0.0; through excluding 13.0.5.0
    Match ID
    60f4c0d6-b650-4be4-9e8f-dbfcff7d8390
  2. cpe:2.3:a:vmware:tools:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    2 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    from including 12.5.0; through excluding 12.5.4
    Match ID
    15832760-0347-4bb8-9b78-de47cbe21957

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

8 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-6b310233dbc1eceadb11ae200191b71c5a499cd0c4916b064b08d7f851b21f9f · product-29d7e06677052d6292d0854ba656869395ea8e26a3dfe12b466a234813f9d5c3

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
13d81bf2-78c2-42c4-ab41-78208a0bfa84
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-6b310233dbc1eceadb11ae200191b71c5a499cd0c4916b064b08d7f851b21f9f · product-312bbab3c579a0a125f3080991c4654567884dd797be43d770e729ae29465327

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
bdf3a408-98e3-4e86-936d-00815e8e7a8a
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-66ae8c5e06427f7450637d18322b0dc411c0b469d940341cf076a620d444fe3c · product-3ccb4bc87dfae98fa2f2a06435fe5b3d9be78572fb958a89f2d7a96b4066447e

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
1714f770-f1b4-4fb0-af60-a9c2934e0323
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-6b310233dbc1eceadb11ae200191b71c5a499cd0c4916b064b08d7f851b21f9f · product-8144209f4e22309d453d422e589454aed6ec0ea75676c35d468c6d6d86806834

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
0fa87a18-d148-4fd6-90fe-584ca15d0bee6232ef36-da43-4756-a78d-88a48743d094
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-6b310233dbc1eceadb11ae200191b71c5a499cd0c4916b064b08d7f851b21f9f · product-9b1558c2e7e499d41e88709e3977af527434adc73075f6839975958d90ef6546

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
9074d66c-a07e-43bc-9176-aef2b49ec2fbac85ac4c-acba-47e2-947a-2ff9f2a8dd9a
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-6b310233dbc1eceadb11ae200191b71c5a499cd0c4916b064b08d7f851b21f9f · product-c5680aa6ec012e79ce4bd619129ce16a8097dbfe33a2039ccba9cf7b7e53fe14

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
9ea73f5f-f8a5-48b9-994b-3295479cb221
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-6b310233dbc1eceadb11ae200191b71c5a499cd0c4916b064b08d7f851b21f9f · product-d3deac29ab6bd35c48c3c775587f94cbece614f7e514c1ec2f6475a12c21ec81

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
7f9006db-1e1f-4146-b464-a34a13be3381
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-6b310233dbc1eceadb11ae200191b71c5a499cd0c4916b064b08d7f851b21f9f · product-f33a9924ca675fab005c67daa6024da2d60a3504bfa15dcb96775f36535e19d7

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
c7ba228e-0c28-4225-92f5-5a3f7ea0863c
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
6
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
27a28ad0-ba1d-4379-9100-d4131ccbb72c50f8f313-6597-4846-9af5-13aff12f16fa585c8e0d-eb46-45e0-b67e-c2b37ff8dd507fd22d63-5538-4363-b420-7d6ef8825414e96e8833-9b20-41f0-accb-a1a096730203f740deab-0a09-47e2-957f-dc1bfc3b5f92

Assessments

CVSS by origin

7.8
security@vmware.comCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
7.8
vmwareCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

7.8Priority eligible

vmware

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:L/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
7.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.