CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2025-59374

"UNSUPPORTED WHEN ASSIGNED" Certain versions of the ASUS Live Update client were distributed with unauthorized modifications introduced through a supply chain compromise.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Dec 17, 2025). ASUS reports CVSS 4.0 9.3. EPSS estimates 1.2% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

65.4–69.6Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

"UNSUPPORTED WHEN ASSIGNED" Certain versions of the ASUS Live Update client were distributed with unauthorized modifications introduced through a supply chain compromise. The modified builds could cause devices meeting specific targeting conditions to perform unintended actions. Only devices that met these conditions and installed the compromised versions were affected. The Live Update client has already reached End-of-Support (EOS) in October 2021, and no currently supported devices or products are affected by this issue.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Dec 17, 2025
Updated
Feb 26, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

Download this view's receipt →
  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    ASUS

    Record text: "UNSUPPORTED WHEN ASSIGNED" Certain versions of the ASUS Live Update client were distributed with unauthorized modifications introduced through a supply chain compromise. The modified builds could cause devices meeting specific targeting conditions to perform unintended actions. Only devices that met these conditions and installed the compromised versions were affected. The Live Update client has already reached End-of-Support (EOS) in October 2021, and no currently supported devices or products are affected by this issue.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    "UNSUPPORTED WHEN ASSIGNED" Certain versions of the ASUS Live Update client were distributed with unauthorized modifications introduced through a supply chain compromise. The modified builds could cause devices meeting specific targeting conditions to perform unintended actions. Only devices that met these conditions and installed the compromised versions were affected. The Live Update client has already reached End-of-Support (EOS) in October 2021, and no currently supported devices or products are affected by this issue.
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: ASUS Live Update Embedded Malicious Code Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    ASUS Live Update Embedded Malicious Code Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 1.2% probability · 67.87th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.011970000000; percentile 0.678660000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Dec 17, 2025 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood1.20%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 67.9th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.3

ASUS · CVSS 4.0 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

ASUSOriginal assertion
Record text

"UNSUPPORTED WHEN ASSIGNED" Certain versions of the ASUS Live Update client were distributed with unauthorized modifications introduced through a supply chain compromise. The modified builds could cause devices meeting specific targeting conditions to perform unintended actions. Only devices that met these conditions and installed the compromised versions were affected. The Live Update client has already reached End-of-Support (EOS) in October 2021, and no currently supported devices or products are affected by this issue.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
"UNSUPPORTED WHEN ASSIGNED" Certain versions of the ASUS Live Update client were distributed with unauthorized modifications introduced through a supply chain compromise. The modified builds could cause devices meeting specific targeting conditions to perform unintended actions. Only devices that met these conditions and installed the compromised versions were affected. The Live Update client has already reached End-of-Support (EOS) in October 2021, and no currently supported devices or products are affected by this issue.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

ASUS Live Update Embedded Malicious Code Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
ASUS Live Update Embedded Malicious Code Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

1.2% probability · 67.87th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.011970000000; percentile 0.678660000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
1Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
1Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

ASUS · source assertedASUSlive updateDirect source scope
Affected: before 3.6.6
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "before 3.6.6"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONasuslive_updateVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 3.6.8)Canonical identity product-6165729d3f795a2ec77f4721e324270a6eea5eeb0c36d486f53531528efb56cbLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:asus:live_update:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 3.6.8
    Match ID
    649a2172-4d6a-491f-a8cf-1cd0d253b879

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
035b325d-4d1a-41a2-8b36-2d60131066be
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
c76ee60c-ea3c-4287-9aa9-fd9bb6d1f194

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.3
CVE Program sourceCVSS 4.0 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:4.0/AV:N/AC:L/AT:N/PR:N/UI:N/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N/E:X/CR:X/IR:X/AR:X/MAV:X/MAC:X/MAT:X/MPR:X/MUI:X/MVC:X/MVI:X/MVA:X/MSC:X/MSI:X/MSA:X/S:X/AU:X/R:X/V:X/RE:X/U:X
9.3
ASUSCVSS 4.0 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:4.0/AV:N/AC:L/AT:N/PR:N/UI:N/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.3Priority eligible

ASUS

CVSS 4.0 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:4.0/AV:N/AC:L/AT:N/PR:N/UI:N/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.3
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.