CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2025-8088

Path traversal vulnerability in WinRAR

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Aug 12, 2025). ESET reports CVSS 4.0 8.4. EPSS estimates 94.6% exploit likelihood as of Aug 26, 2026.

84.6–85.7Priority evidence range
Evidence current through Aug 27, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC

As of Aug 27, 2026

Normalized restatement

A path traversal vulnerability affecting the Windows version of WinRAR allows the attackers to execute arbitrary code by crafting malicious archive files. This vulnerability was exploited in the wild and was discovered by Anton Cherepanov, Peter Košinár, and Peter Strýček from ESET.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Aug 8, 2025
Updated
Feb 26, 2026
Evidence coverage
95%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    ESET

    Record text: Path traversal vulnerability in WinRAR

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Path traversal vulnerability in WinRAR
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: RARLAB WinRAR Path Traversal Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    RARLAB WinRAR Path Traversal Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 94.55% probability · 99.85th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.945510000000; percentile 0.998470000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Aug 12, 2025 · first observed Aug 6, 2026

Exploit likelihood94.55%

FIRST EPSS · score date Aug 26, 2026 · 99.8th percentile · first observed Aug 26, 2026

SeverityCVSS 8.4

ESET · CVSS 4.0 · first observed Jul 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
ESETOriginal assertion
Record text

Path traversal vulnerability in WinRAR

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Path traversal vulnerability in WinRAR
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

RARLAB WinRAR Path Traversal Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
RARLAB WinRAR Path Traversal Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

94.55% probability · 99.85th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.945510000000; percentile 0.998470000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
4Underlying assertions
3Canonical products
2Target assertions
2Constraint assertions

Grouped from 4 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

4 scope groups

ESET · source assertedwin.rar GmbHWinRARDirect source scope
Affected: 0 through 7.12 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "0", "versionType": "custom", "lessThanOrEqual": "7.12"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONdtsearchdtsearchVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 2023.01)Canonical identity product-5605d3c05cc222adbfc55dfad5ba3a79f12831168ec529b951c9f2ffa14f6b6aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:dtsearch:dtsearch:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    1 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 2023.01
    Match ID
    3658938e-7249-4ade-8dcf-7b69a80d9221
NVD CPE · OPERATING SYSTEMmicrosoftwindowsEnvironmental constraint · 2 assertions
Version not applicableCanonical identity product-6a798dc931affc038ba266631a506d54b455ffebd96b4fae68f77b6bd7aef178Linked exact
Scope constrained
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Environmental constraint
    Configuration
    1 · node/1 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a2572d17-1de6-457b-99cc-64afd54487ea
  2. cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows:-:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Environmental constraint
    Configuration
    0 · node/1 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    a2572d17-1de6-457b-99cc-64afd54487ea
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONrarlabwinrarVulnerable target · 1 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (< 7.13)Canonical identity product-48f2563f4ce45947a235bd7a7c8936a0abd3701dcf3dbe502dfd6fb396e3d38aLinked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertion
  1. cpe:2.3:a:rarlab:winrar:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through excluding 7.13
    Match ID
    f8dd81e1-8ff3-4597-a2ea-c71d3856103e

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

2 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-40d734d68605d60a27fb9b3952148d551fa4f8fcffb89f6513f2b48de267c2a0 · product-48f2563f4ce45947a235bd7a7c8936a0abd3701dcf3dbe502dfd6fb396e3d38a

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
3323db9b-a544-4969-a081-6ee2d6623d9c
Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-39bb6c5ea0d0839efffb0631e96926e7d13ee6cc7897803b550504c7b0dcdca0 · product-5605d3c05cc222adbfc55dfad5ba3a79f12831168ec529b951c9f2ffa14f6b6a

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
ea63353f-d76c-40d2-892e-bc62807e5177
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Aug 27, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
9bc77316-74ff-4b6e-8ac8-11280b9054df

Assessments

CVSS by origin

8.8
NVDCVSS 3.1 · role Primary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.4
security@eset.comCVSS 4.0 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:4.0/AV:L/AC:L/AT:N/PR:N/UI:A/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N/E:X/CR:X/IR:X/AR:X/MAV:X/MAC:X/MAT:X/MPR:X/MUI:X/MVC:X/MVI:X/MVA:X/MSC:X/MSI:X/MSA:X/S:X/AU:X/R:X/V:X/RE:X/U:X
8.4
ESETCVSS 4.0 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:4.0/AV:L/AC:L/AT:N/PR:N/UI:A/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.4Priority eligible

ESET

CVSS 4.0 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:4.0/AV:L/AC:L/AT:N/PR:N/UI:A/VC:H/VI:H/VA:H/SC:N/SI:N/SA:N
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.4
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.