CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2026-104935

Authentication bypass by spoofing in ICS before version 25.1.3.0 allows a remote unauthenticated attacker to execute arbitrary commands.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Oct 13, 2026). ivanti reports CVSS 3.1 8.6. EPSS estimates 26.0% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

71.7–80.1Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

Authentication bypass by spoofing in ICS before version 25.1.3.0 allows a remote unauthenticated attacker to execute arbitrary commands. This does not impact ICS version 22.7R2.14 or prior.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Oct 13, 2026
Updated
Oct 13, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Ivanti Connect Secure Authentication Bypass by Spoofing Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Ivanti Connect Secure Authentication Bypass by Spoofing Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    ivanti

    Record text: Authentication bypass by spoofing in ICS before version 25.1.3.0 allows a remote unauthenticated attacker to execute arbitrary commands. This does not impact ICS version 22.7R2.14 or prior.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    Authentication bypass by spoofing in ICS before version 25.1.3.0 allows a remote unauthenticated attacker to execute arbitrary commands. This does not impact ICS version 22.7R2.14 or prior.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 25.98% probability · 97.98th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.259820000000; percentile 0.979820000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Oct 13, 2026 · first observed Oct 14, 2026

Exploit likelihood25.98%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 98th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 8.6

ivanti · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Oct 14, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Ivanti Connect Secure Authentication Bypass by Spoofing Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Ivanti Connect Secure Authentication Bypass by Spoofing Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
ivantiOriginal assertion
Record text

Authentication bypass by spoofing in ICS before version 25.1.3.0 allows a remote unauthenticated attacker to execute arbitrary commands. This does not impact ICS version 22.7R2.14 or prior.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
Authentication bypass by spoofing in ICS before version 25.1.3.0 allows a remote unauthenticated attacker to execute arbitrary commands. This does not impact ICS version 22.7R2.14 or prior.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

25.98% probability · 97.98th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.259820000000; percentile 0.979820000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →

8 scope groups

ivanti · source assertedIvantiConnect SecureDirect source scope
Unaffected: 25.1.3.0 (custom comparison)Unaffected: 25.1.3.1 (custom comparison)Unaffected: 22.8R2.5 (custom comparison)Unaffected: 22.7R2.14 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "unaffected", "version": "25.1.3.0", "versionType": "custom"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": "25.1.3.1", "versionType": "custom"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": "22.8R2.5", "versionType": "custom"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": "22.7R2.14", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:a:ivanti:connect_secure:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*; start including 25.1.0.0; end excluding 25.1.1.2
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:a:ivanti:connect_secure:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*; start including 25.1.2.0; end excluding 25.1.3.0
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:a:ivanti:connect_secure:22.8:r2:*:*:*:*:*:*
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:a:ivanti:connect_secure:22.8:r2.1:*:*:*:*:*:*
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:a:ivanti:connect_secure:22.8:r2.2:*:*:*:*:*:*
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:a:ivanti:connect_secure:22.8:r2.3:*:*:*:*:*:*
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:a:ivanti:connect_secure:22.8:r2.4:*:*:*:*:*:*

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
5239eba5-1fb7-4b19-b12e-129558c874df
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
7
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
15f050f4-7130-4f0e-a239-2247a59264e62e3c8dc5-3f11-47b7-b68b-bf70997fba5f77f3c391-481f-49be-be65-d9913fdada9f92241d66-ac17-4d76-b84c-3b800e6df9bac9e20b37-ef33-4d46-a2f5-b3f7fecaabffdc28b04e-30e5-450c-969b-d5fb43418b44f4d4ca77-05f9-43b9-85c1-e19d9c794453

Assessments

CVSS by origin

8.6
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:L/A:L
8.6
ivantiCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:L/A:L

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.6Priority eligible

ivanti

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:L/A:L
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.6
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.