CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2026-1281

A code injection in Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile allowing attackers to achieve unauthenticated remote code execution.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Jan 29, 2026). ivanti reports CVSS 3.1 9.8. EPSS estimates 98.7% exploit likelihood as of Oct 14, 2026.

87.0–88.6Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

A code injection in Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile allowing attackers to achieve unauthenticated remote code execution.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Jan 29, 2026
Updated
Oct 7, 2026
Evidence coverage
97%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile (EPMM) Code Injection Vulnerability

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile (EPMM) Code Injection Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    ivanti

    Record text: A code injection in Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile allowing attackers to achieve unauthenticated remote code execution.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    container
    Value
    A code injection in Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile allowing attackers to achieve unauthenticated remote code execution.
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 98.69% probability · 99.93th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.986880000000; percentile 0.999250000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Jan 29, 2026 · first observed Sep 1, 2026

Exploit likelihood98.69%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 14, 2026 · 99.9th percentile · first observed Oct 15, 2026

SeverityCVSS 9.8

ivanti · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Oct 8, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile (EPMM) Code Injection Vulnerability

Inspect raw assertion
Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile (EPMM) Code Injection Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
ivantiOriginal assertion
Record text

A code injection in Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile allowing attackers to achieve unauthenticated remote code execution.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
A code injection in Ivanti Endpoint Manager Mobile allowing attackers to achieve unauthenticated remote code execution.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

98.69% probability · 99.93th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.986880000000; percentile 0.999250000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →
5Underlying assertions
1Canonical products
5Target assertions
0Constraint assertions

Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.

Identity source boundaries
  • Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa
  • Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e

2 scope groups

ivanti · source assertedIvantiEndpoint Manager MobileDirect source scope
Unaffected: 12.x.1.x RPM (custom comparison)Unaffected: 12.x.0.x RPM (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "unaffected", "version": "12.x.1.x RPM", "versionType": "custom"}, {"status": "unaffected", "version": "12.x.0.x RPM", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD CPE · APPLICATIONivantiendpoint_manager_mobileVulnerable target · 5 assertions
Any version (unconstrained) (<= 12.5.0.0); Version 12.5.1.0; Version 12.6.0.0; Version 12.6.1.0; Version 12.7.0.0Canonical identity product-8ee94fee70d74d1daf3957eb369f11016016454797e215f5dd5b3065597a7fa0Linked exact
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertions
  1. cpe:2.3:a:ivanti:endpoint_manager_mobile:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 0
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    through including 12.5.0.0
    Match ID
    1e4cdbd6-451c-4f5f-b40a-05aef284fb9c
  2. cpe:2.3:a:ivanti:endpoint_manager_mobile:12.7.0.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 4
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    79879c08-959d-49bd-947c-914f82b564e4
  3. cpe:2.3:a:ivanti:endpoint_manager_mobile:12.6.0.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 2
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    13b3b9e5-6206-41c3-bc9e-a5aaeba88a96
  4. cpe:2.3:a:ivanti:endpoint_manager_mobile:12.6.1.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 3
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    1e44bef4-a032-4d05-83aa-afd52c56ea8e
  5. cpe:2.3:a:ivanti:endpoint_manager_mobile:12.5.1.0:*:*:*:*:*:*:*
    Official link
    Linked exact
    Role
    Vulnerable target
    Configuration
    0 · node/0 · match 1
    Logic
    OR
    Version bounds
    No explicit bounds
    Match ID
    66f18e48-8f45-480c-ad0d-d6a615fd6157

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

1 canonical links · 1 source-reported links

Mapping establishedEvidence supported

vendor-3425119a96da358469a7b553eb78575943b212717ed69c8b19da50120e63cd05 · product-8ee94fee70d74d1daf3957eb369f11016016454797e215f5dd5b3065597a7fa0

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
5
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
3ad956be-7914-4cb9-b43c-c7d07078dd3668ae1df6-6b39-4e2b-b3d6-db4f7d02683275fc9800-e3a2-48ff-bd94-8ed20559c21677cb299b-4530-45aa-90c5-eaa341dcdc62d26456a2-4723-4d09-a308-d06b8267393f
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
1
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
4d5a9cc1-684a-4d7a-8d81-367f96e65945

Assessments

CVSS by origin

9.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
9.8
ivantiCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

9.8Priority eligible

ivanti

CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
9.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.