CISA KEV · catalog date Feb 10, 2026 · first observed Sep 1, 2026
Evidence dossier
CVE-2026-21525
Windows Remote Access Connection Manager Denial of Service Vulnerability
Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Feb 10, 2026). microsoft reports CVSS 3.1 6.2. EPSS estimates 4.8% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.
As of Oct 22, 2026
Normalized restatement
Null pointer dereference in Windows Remote Access Connection Manager allows an unauthorized attacker to deny service locally.
- State
- PUBLISHED
- Published
- Feb 10, 2026
- Updated
- Aug 19, 2026
- Evidence coverage
- 92%
Evidence chronology
What was known when
- Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCACISA-ADPOriginal evidence ↗
Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
container- Value
- CISA ADP Vulnrichment
- Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCACVE ProgramOriginal evidence ↗
Record text: CVE Program Container
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
container- Value
- CVE Program Container
- Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAmicrosoftOriginal evidence ↗
Record text: Windows Remote Access Connection Manager Denial of Service Vulnerability
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
container- Value
- Windows Remote Access Connection Manager Denial of Service Vulnerability
- Source dateFirst observed by CASCACISA KEVOriginal evidence ↗
Exploitation cataloged: Microsoft Windows NULL Pointer Dereference Vulnerability
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
observed_exploitation- Value
- Microsoft Windows NULL Pointer Dereference Vulnerability
- Source dateFirst observed by CASCAFIRST EPSSOriginal evidence ↗
EPSS score: 4.83% probability · 91.95th percentile
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
model_probability- Value
- Probability 0.048250000000; percentile 0.919460000000
FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 91.9th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026
microsoft · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Aug 19, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot
Evidence detail
Source limits and decisions
Why each evidence state has this value
casca-unknown-reasons-v1The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.
- Revision
- evidence-policy-v1.1.0
- Cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
- Resolution
- Review source contract
Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.
- Revision
- evidence-policy-v1.1.0
- Cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
- Resolution
- None
Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.
- Revision
- casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
- Cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
- Resolution
- None
The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.
- Revision
- casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
- Cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
- Resolution
- Resolve identity
Source comparison
Who said what
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
container- Value
- CISA ADP Vulnrichment
CVE Program Container
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
container- Value
- CVE Program Container
Windows Remote Access Connection Manager Denial of Service Vulnerability
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
container- Value
- Windows Remote Access Connection Manager Denial of Service Vulnerability
Microsoft Windows NULL Pointer Dereference Vulnerability
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
observed_exploitation- Value
- Microsoft Windows NULL Pointer Dereference Vulnerability
4.83% probability · 91.95th percentile
Inspect raw assertion
- Field
model_probability- Value
- Probability 0.048250000000; percentile 0.919460000000
Applicability
Cited product scope
Grouped from 1 configuration nodes in this exact snapshot. Visual grouping is navigational; asset exposure and root cause require cited evidence.
Identity source boundaries
- Cpe dictionary1,775,266 records · observed through 2026-07-21T06:45:29.809Z
27d65b0f-b718-4b4f-bb79-c47c68d09dfa - Cpe match643,502 records · observed through 2026-07-21T08:13:17.697Z
955dae73-7302-438b-aee1-058d7cc5d48e
35 scope groups
Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.8868", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.8389", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.19044.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19044.6937", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.19045.0", "lessThan": "10.0.19045.6937", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22631.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22631.6649", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.22631.0", "lessThan": "10.0.22631.6649", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.26100.0", "lessThan": "10.0.26100.7840", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.26200.0", "lessThan": "10.0.26200.7840", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.28000.0", "lessThan": "10.0.28000.1575", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.28000.0", "lessThan": "10.0.28000.1575", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.25923", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.23022", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.3.9600.0", "lessThan": "6.3.9600.23022", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "6.2.9200.0", "lessThan": "6.2.9200.25923", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.8868", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.14393.0", "lessThan": "10.0.14393.8868", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.8389", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.17763.0", "lessThan": "10.0.17763.8389", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.20348.0", "lessThan": "10.0.20348.4773", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.25398.0", "lessThan": "10.0.25398.2149", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.26100.0", "lessThan": "10.0.26100.32370", "versionType": "custom"}]Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Inspect raw assertion
[{"status": "affected", "version": "10.0.26100.0", "lessThan": "10.0.26100.32370", "versionType": "custom"}]product-740fec3e9838b5eabe76ebe27e4d0d7a4cb2e0ef7e13923300d3d0b51e3fce1cLinked exactInspect raw assertions
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1607:*:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*- Official link
- Linked exact
- Role
- Vulnerable target
- Configuration
- 0 · node/0 · match 1
- Logic
- OR
- Version bounds
- through excluding 10.0.14393.8868
- Match ID
b941280b-97f6-4f60-80a3-40482a74488d
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1607:*:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*- Official link
- Linked exact
- Role
- Vulnerable target
- Configuration
- 0 · node/0 · match 0
- Logic
- OR
- Version bounds
- through excluding 10.0.14393.8868
- Match ID
e78a20fd-b910-43df-be89-e971e2fd0049
product-a3084138383423221f61594e86f5b295e5e254acd7ae5284f45e0877a084db43Linked exactInspect raw assertions
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:*:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*- Official link
- Linked exact
- Role
- Vulnerable target
- Configuration
- 0 · node/0 · match 2
- Logic
- OR
- Version bounds
- through excluding 10.0.17763.8389
- Match ID
c09c54da-6ab0-4696-a2f2-c11cfc292ea9
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_1809:*:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*- Official link
- Linked exact
- Role
- Vulnerable target
- Configuration
- 0 · node/0 · match 3
- Logic
- OR
- Version bounds
- through excluding 10.0.17763.8389
- Match ID
369b4e41-3895-4cb7-bd37-d2e4a4d52fb9
product-ec10c9f400f23fdf118887f60fe116ffde4adb76dcf118cdd3a7556fd033da3bLinked exactInspect raw assertions
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_21h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:x86:*- Official link
- Linked exact
- Role
- Vulnerable target
- Configuration
- 0 · node/0 · match 6
- Logic
- OR
- Version bounds
- through excluding 10.0.19044.6937
- Match ID
37e2bff1-28c0-4fa0-9a6c-020146e4ad54
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_21h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:arm64:*- Official link
- Linked exact
- Role
- Vulnerable target
- Configuration
- 0 · node/0 · match 4
- Logic
- OR
- Version bounds
- through excluding 10.0.19044.6937
- Match ID
edb3fd9a-2786-4ec1-8989-2b0d054e0307
cpe:2.3:o:microsoft:windows_10_21h2:*:*:*:*:*:*:x64:*- Official link
- Linked exact
- Role
- Vulnerable target
- Configuration
- 0 · node/0 · match 5
- Logic
- OR
- Version bounds
- through excluding 10.0.19044.6937
- Match ID
893dba65-116b-4ae0-80e1-50458cb5fdad
Affected-product evidence
Accepted scope and product mapping
13 canonical links · 1 source-reported links
vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-026201767813843a6d53867bacde4a55c3035cb868c0a72434012c5e30dab148
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 2
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
89dc2342-82a5-41f2-be70-61323d33fdbaadd3efb8-864d-4154-9a6c-782810159d03vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-02e254d111ce604757a15650ef469f4f8365d6247da82ce3ac2695c3cfc7dc5f
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 1
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
c517d58d-159c-4ee8-af8f-6e148b02d50fvendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-25a2932c0bbcb648f7e391c8b9d34c734e5085444c03c1c206b9d4c4baa80b25
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 1
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
d26b9fef-1bb3-40fb-98af-776e08559210vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-3fe7da0d567cbba9da3f09deea827ccacd90ac3643fc3e1622f75fb001f24443
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 1
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
71934e1a-230a-42ae-bfcd-61f550679742vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-5a80416e92fed0cddbb3d4f3840218b448dee11159824ad25a0353da566963fe
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 2
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
6474e650-7982-45a0-95b5-f0dd25f96fe48ecfb4b2-6d8e-4366-82b7-292ed556795evendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-740fec3e9838b5eabe76ebe27e4d0d7a4cb2e0ef7e13923300d3d0b51e3fce1c
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 2
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
77bdc53f-ab5a-47a1-b523-c395c278c671fedf00cf-4f27-40b3-9d91-614c0afb9ad0vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-8665879a2f5fe8b8eab868c43d6ace340b95d1f3879639d97ebdf60ef7b49b5f
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 2
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
1ace387b-309e-4f34-b769-71c46bbd29d5e573d844-fc19-4ccd-b474-7855e475ae9avendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-a3084138383423221f61594e86f5b295e5e254acd7ae5284f45e0877a084db43
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 2
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
93e1d9cc-2943-4cbe-9a03-9eaa4017d9cab76259ed-9a52-433c-9daf-f4beb4352c4cvendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-a6295b9daad3ca57ce70751badba5b7fe99229c8a562cc7400e8cfef3daccaee
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 3
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
462e7ce9-6215-4a98-9a6d-3be967dc152aa61f49a4-9ba6-47c3-aba0-8dc2f80732dbb77a4507-5ba7-464f-bc8d-88a7201ba7f3vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-bc66b50eed682b3633d0f3a2914725d0a72d6d0d5fece14f566d91bc87448c0b
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 1
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
6fd704fd-db05-423c-a92e-c53db423ed93vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-d196d31962e613955a91e33e795c22dcfa7bf25173abebaca616a6350cce9ce1
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 1
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
bb5ae17a-2376-4fa2-8f02-6f92aa94ef2avendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-e9349aae7bae97a590ecc61309b626fd2c236f349da7ff6c765ab3d5cefdfa78
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 2
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
3131fc5a-c5e3-4ced-a18c-98dc3dc54afbcb9afe0a-2639-4ce7-8558-e4c534106d07vendor-01299a5a765aea70faa05f2d06e0c26a5d498fd34553e868d89e8a43b31864db · product-ec10c9f400f23fdf118887f60fe116ffde4adb76dcf118cdd3a7556fd033da3b
- Source class
- Nvd cpe vulnerable target
- Assertions
- 3
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
83909d49-13c8-49d1-8710-9a7a4699f1ec9238f146-ea86-4de2-baf0-533a544e0100dd4ae013-6630-470b-a391-e9df07e61ae3Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.
Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source
- Source class
- Direct cve affected
- Assertions
- 22
- Mapping revision
- cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
- Observed cutoff
- Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
01a061ea-47d7-4aa3-a05e-8e1ad15a44a90e7eee61-b334-41d2-95d6-fbc8c21a8c40412d6e6d-ebd8-4d66-ae81-84e80a7c7626435d2bc5-5b7b-48fd-83e8-bbbf73868adb4a74ab40-b6a8-488a-9ef3-438800664989514da843-f1ad-4967-97bd-bf317bfdae8a54ccbb5b-c349-46f2-a786-7216be9f1ed65afee0a6-b71c-4f08-aab9-3a81c60a6b4e62b257e2-2cd6-4dae-838c-a3b432ec431673823291-857a-4790-bdaf-00323b98587f8965d9dd-b10b-47fc-9530-f643105da0538c5647e8-4ebd-4aab-bfed-10feb138f8fc9358f509-f5b7-4875-845e-344c0817bb85afc5b991-f666-46ea-9fe9-98df4cfde26eafe67d1d-8f26-44d2-bed8-7d0d74cda725b0b35aef-a9cb-46aa-9009-b7b8940e318bb479329d-6345-48e3-8e7c-7aa9a12fb5f7b8b525c4-969f-411f-8f88-e210ce27ea41bf60c0c9-2ec2-4ec9-858d-a82a5628e2e6c5599093-c7dc-45d4-aeaa-d12e5a412c83d528378f-a4f0-4fcb-8146-0f65e5714e90ef551f8e-b396-416a-a6e1-f428b1f6a4e8Assessments
CVSS by origin
CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:N/I:N/A:HCVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:N/I:N/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:CDirect CVE/CNA normalized decisions
microsoft
CVSS 3.1 · Primary · Original assertion · rank 1
CVSS:3.1/AV:L/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:N/I:N/A:H/E:U/RL:O/RC:C- Validation
- Valid match
- Recomputed
- 6.2
- Decision reason
- Evidence supported
- Policy
- casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.
Evidence boundaries
- KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
- EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
- Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
- NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
- Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
- NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
- Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
- OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
- Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
- Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.