CASCACascade Atlas

Evidence dossier

CVE-2026-86950

An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved bounds checking.

Exploited in the wild (CISA KEV since Sep 29, 2026). CVE Program source reports CVSS 3.1 8.8. EPSS estimates 1.2% exploit likelihood as of Oct 22, 2026.

64.2–71.6Priority evidence range
Evidence through Oct 22, 2026, 6:07 PM UTC

As of Oct 22, 2026

Normalized restatement

An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved bounds checking. This issue is fixed in iOS 26.7.1 and iPadOS 26.7.1, macOS Sequoia 15.8.1, macOS Tahoe 26.7.1. Processing a maliciously crafted file may lead to arbitrary code execution. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on versions of iOS before iOS 27.

State
PUBLISHED
Published
Sep 28, 2026
Updated
Oct 1, 2026
Evidence coverage
85%

Evidence chronology

What was known when

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  1. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    apple

    Record text: An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved bounds checking. This issue is fixed in iOS 26.7.1 and iPadOS 26.7.1, macOS Sequoia 15.8.1, macOS Tahoe 26.7.1. Processing a maliciously crafted file may lead to arbitrary code execution. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on versions of iOS before iOS 27.

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
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    Value
    An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved bounds checking. This issue is fixed in iOS 26.7.1 and iPadOS 26.7.1, macOS Sequoia 15.8.1, macOS Tahoe 26.7.1. Processing a maliciously crafted file may lead to arbitrary code execution. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on versions of iOS before iOS 27.
    Original evidence ↗
  2. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA-ADP

    Record text: CISA ADP Vulnrichment

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    CISA ADP Vulnrichment
    Original evidence ↗
  3. Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCA
    CVE Program

    Record text: CVE Program Container

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    Value
    CVE Program Container
    Original evidence ↗
  4. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    CISA KEV

    Exploitation cataloged: Apple Multiple Products Out-of-Bounds Write Vulnerability

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    Field
    observed_exploitation
    Value
    Apple Multiple Products Out-of-Bounds Write Vulnerability
    Original evidence ↗
  5. Source dateFirst observed by CASCA
    FIRST EPSS

    EPSS score: 1.24% probability · 68.97th percentile

    Inspect raw assertion
    Field
    model_probability
    Value
    Probability 0.012420000000; percentile 0.689650000000
    Original evidence ↗
ExploitationCatalog member

CISA KEV · catalog date Sep 29, 2026 · first observed Oct 9, 2026

Exploit likelihood1.24%

FIRST EPSS · score date Oct 22, 2026 · 69th percentile · first observed Oct 22, 2026

SeverityCVSS 8.8

CVE Program source · CVSS 3.1 · first observed Oct 9, 2026 · same-version scores align in this snapshot

Evidence detail

Source limits and decisions

Why each evidence state has this value

casca-unknown-reasons-v1
Exploitation statusLast verified source snapshot retained

The last verified source boundary remains in force for this claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Review source contract
Exploit likelihoodEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
evidence-policy-v1.1.0
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Severity assessmentEvidence supported

Eligible evidence is present for this bounded claim.

Revision
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
None
Affected productsSource-reported scope

The cited source assertion is retained while canonical product linkage remains open.

Revision
casca-factor-d-obligations-v1
Cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Resolution
Resolve identity

Source comparison

Who said what

appleOriginal assertion
Record text

An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved bounds checking. This issue is fixed in iOS 26.7.1 and iPadOS 26.7.1, macOS Sequoia 15.8.1, macOS Tahoe 26.7.1. Processing a maliciously crafted file may lead to arbitrary code execution. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on versions of iOS before iOS 27.

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved bounds checking. This issue is fixed in iOS 26.7.1 and iPadOS 26.7.1, macOS Sequoia 15.8.1, macOS Tahoe 26.7.1. Processing a maliciously crafted file may lead to arbitrary code execution. Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals on versions of iOS before iOS 27.
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA-ADPIndependent enrichment
Record text

CISA ADP Vulnrichment

Inspect raw assertion
Field
container
Value
CISA ADP Vulnrichment
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CVE ProgramDerivative copy
Record text

CVE Program Container

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Field
container
Value
CVE Program Container
Source dateSource date omittedFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
CISA KEVOriginal assertion
Exploitation cataloged

Apple Multiple Products Out-of-Bounds Write Vulnerability

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Field
observed_exploitation
Value
Apple Multiple Products Out-of-Bounds Write Vulnerability
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗
FIRST EPSSOriginal assertion
EPSS score

1.24% probability · 68.97th percentile

Inspect raw assertion
Field
model_probability
Value
Probability 0.012420000000; percentile 0.689650000000
Source dateFirst observed by CASCAOriginal evidence ↗

Applicability

Cited product scope

Trace impact →

6 scope groups

apple · source assertedAppleiOS and iPadOSDirect source scope
Affected: 0 to before 26.7.1 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "0", "lessThan": "26.7.1", "versionType": "custom"}]
apple · source assertedApplemacOSDirect source scope
Affected: 0 to before 15.8.1 (custom comparison)Affected: 0 to before 26.7.1 (custom comparison)
Source-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Inspect raw assertion[{"status": "affected", "version": "0", "lessThan": "15.8.1", "versionType": "custom"}, {"status": "affected", "version": "0", "lessThan": "26.7.1", "versionType": "custom"}]
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:o:apple:ipados:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*; end excluding 26.7.1
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:o:apple:iphone_os:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*; end excluding 26.7.1
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:o:apple:macos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*; end excluding 15.8.1
NVD · source assertedVendor unspecified by sourceProduct unspecified by sourceDirect source scope
Version bounds not stated
Scope supported
Inspect raw assertioncpe:2.3:o:apple:macos:*:*:*:*:*:*:*:*; start including 26.0; end excluding 26.7.1

Affected-product evidence

Accepted scope and product mapping

0 canonical links · 2 source-reported links

Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Direct cve affected
Assertions
2
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
4653319d-6396-4608-8f86-d41afda1550f6ad4f1f8-e755-44aa-b421-bcf63ee5d4eb
Source-reported scopeSource-reported scope

Canonical linkage remains open; the cited source assertion is retained below.

Vendor specified only by source · Product specified only by source

Source class
Nvd cpe vulnerable target
Assertions
4
Mapping revision
cpe23-exact-mapping-v1
Observed cutoff
Oct 22, 2026
Retained assertion IDs
6abf3fc0-b3f2-4033-a442-2bfb225a57c87345cdbd-12d2-43cc-9330-8314a22037e977905918-7cdb-47b0-a925-f81a7c104040cc6e2367-1939-4da6-803f-dd53bec52148

Assessments

CVSS by origin

8.8
CVE Program sourceCVSS 3.1 · role Secondary · priority eligiblevalid_matchCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
8.8
CISA-ADPCVSS 3.1 · role unknown · display onlyDirect record assessment retained outside normalized eligibilityCVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

Direct CVE/CNA normalized decisions

8.8Priority eligible

CISA-ADP

CVSS 3.1 · Secondary · Independent enrichment · rank 2

CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
Validation
Valid match
Recomputed
8.8
Decision reason
Evidence supported
Policy
casca-direct-cvss-eligibility-v1

Assessments are retained side by side under closed precedence. Cascade never averages CVSS.

Evidence boundaries

  • KEV membership is authoritative for the catalog, not proof of exposure in any environment.
  • EPSS is a dated model probability and not an individual-environment prediction.
  • Affected or fixed status applies only to the exact cited product and version scope; remaining scope stays source-scoped.
  • NVD-carried upstream facts remain derivative; independent corroboration requires a separately authored source.
  • Only NVD metrics validated under the generation-bound calculator are Public Priority eligible; direct CVE record metrics remain display-only.
  • NVD CVSS source eligibility is closed: NVD-authored, exact record-source, or registered same-CVE container origin; unmapped sources remain display-only.
  • Core replay supports the active and immediately prior generation; retrospective valid-at replay is deferred.
  • OSV aggregation and OSV-converted NVD material are not independent corroboration.
  • Red Hat facts are vendor assertions for the exact supplied products.
  • Nonmembership and not-yet-observed states are not proof of safety.